50% — the tariff rate Trump imposed on select Canadian imports, yet only 5% of $382 billion in Canadian goods actually falls within scope. Most analysts read this as contained. The overlooked variable is the doubling trigger.
Trump threatened to raise auto, parts, and steel tariffs to 50% next January. Canada currently supplies 60% of U.S. crude oil imports and 99% of natural gas imports. Carney retaliated with C$27.6 billion across 700 goods, starting September 8, backed by a C$7.5 billion aid package.
The Dallas Fed estimated tariffs already pushed PCE from 2.3% to 3.2% — a 0.9-point inflation tax. The implication: tariffs are not a negotiating tool here, they are a permanent consumption drag. The doubling in January is the variable nobody is pricing. 📊
Trump threatened to raise auto, parts, and steel tariffs to 50% next January. Canada currently supplies 60% of U.S. crude oil imports and 99% of natural gas imports. Carney retaliated with C$27.6 billion across 700 goods, starting September 8, backed by a C$7.5 billion aid package.
The Dallas Fed estimated tariffs already pushed PCE from 2.3% to 3.2% — a 0.9-point inflation tax. The implication: tariffs are not a negotiating tool here, they are a permanent consumption drag. The doubling in January is the variable nobody is pricing. 📊
