⚡ US macro data without surprises. But I wouldn’t be so quick to call them fully neutral.
Real GDP in the US grew by 1.5% year-on-year in Q2—just as much as the previous estimate showed.
Core PCE added 0.2% m/m, also in line with expectations. But on a year-on-year basis, core PCE stayed at 3.3%—far from the Fed’s 2% target.
So there’s no surprise, but there’s also no signal that inflation is cooling quickly.
For the crypto market, this is more of a mixed signal: the economy is growing, while inflationary pressure remains high enough that the Fed can’t afford to calmly think about easing policy.
In releases like these, I like one simple thing: the “as expected” figure still doesn’t mean “everything is fine.” Sometimes the most interesting part is exactly that the market didn’t get a reason to change its expectations.
If you want to break down macro without the magical “this is bullish for BTC,” follow me on @MoonMan567
Real GDP in the US grew by 1.5% year-on-year in Q2—just as much as the previous estimate showed.
Core PCE added 0.2% m/m, also in line with expectations. But on a year-on-year basis, core PCE stayed at 3.3%—far from the Fed’s 2% target.
So there’s no surprise, but there’s also no signal that inflation is cooling quickly.
For the crypto market, this is more of a mixed signal: the economy is growing, while inflationary pressure remains high enough that the Fed can’t afford to calmly think about easing policy.
In releases like these, I like one simple thing: the “as expected” figure still doesn’t mean “everything is fine.” Sometimes the most interesting part is exactly that the market didn’t get a reason to change its expectations.
If you want to break down macro without the magical “this is bullish for BTC,” follow me on @MoonMan567
