I touched 598.8 in half a day, and coming back took only half a day as well. META is now pinned at 576. In the past 15 minutes, both moving averages are fully pressed overhead, and that long upper wick has already burned through whatever strength was used to push the price higher.
What’s really twisted is what’s happening on the large players’ side: the proportion of long accounts dropped 4% over 7 hours, but the proportion of long exposure in their hands actually increased by 4.4%. Accounts are pulling back while positions are being added—meaning long chips are concentrating into fewer and fewer hands. When such consolidation appears at high levels, it usually isn’t an entry signal.
Look next at the money propping the market: the contract open interest shrank by 5% in a day, spot large orders net inflow is still at zero, and on the order book the sell-side order queue is still suppressing the buy-side. With eight fee rate samples taken, seven were positive—meaning the longs are still paying interest on positions that refuse to rise.
I’ll give the direction: I’m going short. Short directly around 576, set the stop-loss above the upper wick tied to 598, and the first target is 563. If there’s no new money coming in, then going sideways is just another way of distributing.
Under what circumstances do I flip? If open interest expands again and the price holds above 580, or if spot large orders net inflow truly brings in real money. The moment the money returns, the short position is invalidated.
#meta $META
What’s really twisted is what’s happening on the large players’ side: the proportion of long accounts dropped 4% over 7 hours, but the proportion of long exposure in their hands actually increased by 4.4%. Accounts are pulling back while positions are being added—meaning long chips are concentrating into fewer and fewer hands. When such consolidation appears at high levels, it usually isn’t an entry signal.
Look next at the money propping the market: the contract open interest shrank by 5% in a day, spot large orders net inflow is still at zero, and on the order book the sell-side order queue is still suppressing the buy-side. With eight fee rate samples taken, seven were positive—meaning the longs are still paying interest on positions that refuse to rise.
I’ll give the direction: I’m going short. Short directly around 576, set the stop-loss above the upper wick tied to 598, and the first target is 563. If there’s no new money coming in, then going sideways is just another way of distributing.
Under what circumstances do I flip? If open interest expands again and the price holds above 580, or if spot large orders net inflow truly brings in real money. The moment the money returns, the short position is invalidated.
#meta $META
