BTC is still ranging at a high level and hasn’t given a clear direction yet. For now, the key focus remains on how the price behaves around the low near 75,600 during a pullback.
Since BTC broke above 79,000, it has entered high-level consolidation. Today marks the sixth day of this range. Whether it’s digesting bullish positions or shaking out short sellers, a breakout and clear direction should come next. That’s why I’m focusing on price action around the low near 75,600.
Why focus on the 75,600 low? Because 75,600 is the pullback low after BTC rose to 79,500, and it also served as the launching point for the move toward 81,200. There’s no doubt that there are a lot of long stop-losses around 75,600. From either a pullback perspective or a stop-hunt perspective, if price comes in around this area, I think it would be a decent choice.
Second, BTC has been consolidating below 79,500 and hasn’t fully broken through the pressure there. As long as 79,500 hasn’t been broken, we treat the market as still being primarily pullback-driven. Above 79,500, there is some trapped supply that needs time to digest and wash out.
Finally, we also need to watch how supply behaves in the 75,600–79,500 range. If we see a pattern of rising on decreasing volume and falling on increasing volume (a consolidation with that volume behavior), then we interpret it as distribution (spreading out). In that case, the market may pull back over the next period. If, however, during the consolidation range there isn’t an expansion in sell volume, but instead the market drifts into a low-activity range with no significant trading volume, then we believe the supply has already been absorbed. After that, further upside would be expected. Therefore, within the 75,600–79,500 consolidation range, closely monitor changes in trading volume. Be careful about the possibility of distribution and building a top if there is a sell-off with increased volume. If consolidation continues on low volume, there may be another leg of upside ahead.
Since BTC broke above 79,000, it has entered high-level consolidation. Today marks the sixth day of this range. Whether it’s digesting bullish positions or shaking out short sellers, a breakout and clear direction should come next. That’s why I’m focusing on price action around the low near 75,600.
Why focus on the 75,600 low? Because 75,600 is the pullback low after BTC rose to 79,500, and it also served as the launching point for the move toward 81,200. There’s no doubt that there are a lot of long stop-losses around 75,600. From either a pullback perspective or a stop-hunt perspective, if price comes in around this area, I think it would be a decent choice.
Second, BTC has been consolidating below 79,500 and hasn’t fully broken through the pressure there. As long as 79,500 hasn’t been broken, we treat the market as still being primarily pullback-driven. Above 79,500, there is some trapped supply that needs time to digest and wash out.
Finally, we also need to watch how supply behaves in the 75,600–79,500 range. If we see a pattern of rising on decreasing volume and falling on increasing volume (a consolidation with that volume behavior), then we interpret it as distribution (spreading out). In that case, the market may pull back over the next period. If, however, during the consolidation range there isn’t an expansion in sell volume, but instead the market drifts into a low-activity range with no significant trading volume, then we believe the supply has already been absorbed. After that, further upside would be expected. Therefore, within the 75,600–79,500 consolidation range, closely monitor changes in trading volume. Be careful about the possibility of distribution and building a top if there is a sell-off with increased volume. If consolidation continues on low volume, there may be another leg of upside ahead.
