To be blunt, the $NVDA spot—I’m standing short here. 221 is sticking close to the 24h high at 222.3, grinding it out. After four hours of five bullish candles and one bearish one, it looks like it’s about to break through—but when I check the positions from seven hours ago, the moment you chase longs, the hands immediately pull back.
The most eye-catching part is the big players: the more the price is pushed up, the more the whales are撤/（withdrawing）. In the long-only accounts, the share of positions over those seven hours has been cut by nearly 30%, and the share of long positions is also down 26%. Look at the contract open interest too: it surged by 50% earlier in the day, and over the most recent seven hours it reversed and shrank by 19%—this is a market where leverage was used to push the price, while they ran first; the fuel is being withdrawn.
On the spot side, in that whole window there isn’t even a single net large order inflow. The over-$600M trading volume is all small orders trading back and forth. Plainly put: this move is lifted by leverage and sentiment, but there isn’t big money stepping in to take it. Once the leverage is pulled, what’s left floating there is just water.
So for the short-term, short NVDA—don’t chase this new high. First target: a retest of the 20 line around 220. If it breaks, then the 50 line at 215.5. A deeper dip to the platform around 211 is also normal. The risk is obvious: the trend is upward. I only take this bite of the leverage-leveraged pullback after the tide retreats—I’m not betting on it going to zero.
When will I admit I’m wrong and flip long? When spot large orders turn from zero to positive net inflow, and they keep entering continuously; or when OI turns around with a volume increase, and price holds steady above 222.3 and makes new highs—that’s new money stepping in, and I’ll immediately flip long.
#nvda $NVDA
The most eye-catching part is the big players: the more the price is pushed up, the more the whales are撤/（withdrawing）. In the long-only accounts, the share of positions over those seven hours has been cut by nearly 30%, and the share of long positions is also down 26%. Look at the contract open interest too: it surged by 50% earlier in the day, and over the most recent seven hours it reversed and shrank by 19%—this is a market where leverage was used to push the price, while they ran first; the fuel is being withdrawn.
On the spot side, in that whole window there isn’t even a single net large order inflow. The over-$600M trading volume is all small orders trading back and forth. Plainly put: this move is lifted by leverage and sentiment, but there isn’t big money stepping in to take it. Once the leverage is pulled, what’s left floating there is just water.
So for the short-term, short NVDA—don’t chase this new high. First target: a retest of the 20 line around 220. If it breaks, then the 50 line at 215.5. A deeper dip to the platform around 211 is also normal. The risk is obvious: the trend is upward. I only take this bite of the leverage-leveraged pullback after the tide retreats—I’m not betting on it going to zero.
When will I admit I’m wrong and flip long? When spot large orders turn from zero to positive net inflow, and they keep entering continuously; or when OI turns around with a volume increase, and price holds steady above 222.3 and makes new highs—that’s new money stepping in, and I’ll immediately flip long.
#nvda $NVDA
