58.5%——Aggressive buy-side orders pushing it to this point; last night it was only 47.7%. DRAM 58.26, up more than 3% over 24 hours—looks like the bulls may be preparing a comeback. But the more you buy, the more it feels wrong: over these 7 hours, open interest shrank by 5.6%, and the share of main-broker long positions dropped by nearly 11%. If they’re buying this aggressively yet withdrawing positions, what are these orders for? To cover shorts—this isn’t building new longs.
Now look at the big players: their accounts still hold over 70% long exposure, but from about 7 hours ago until now, longs have been cut by more than 10%. They say they’re bullish, but their hands are already running. The funding rate is at zero: out of 8 samplings, 7 were positive, yet the price stubbornly stays under the MA20 at 58.3—bulls aren’t even eager to pay the carry. If the rally is propped up by squeezing and not by sustained willingness, how far can it go?
The spot market is even cleaner: there are zero net inflows from large orders. On the order book, sell-side orders are thicker than buy-side by more than 10%, and the intraday high at 58.99 was touched once but never tested again. The K-line is marked UP, but underneath there’s no fresh money propping it up—just old positions exiting and lifting the price.
So I won’t follow this long; I’m going short directly. For a short-term rebound, let the shorts cover—since chips are being withdrawn and price/volume are diverging, it won’t hold. The day spot’s large orders truly step in and open interest expands again, once 58.99 breaks, I’ll immediately admit I’m wrong and flip long. #dram $DRAM
Now look at the big players: their accounts still hold over 70% long exposure, but from about 7 hours ago until now, longs have been cut by more than 10%. They say they’re bullish, but their hands are already running. The funding rate is at zero: out of 8 samplings, 7 were positive, yet the price stubbornly stays under the MA20 at 58.3—bulls aren’t even eager to pay the carry. If the rally is propped up by squeezing and not by sustained willingness, how far can it go?
The spot market is even cleaner: there are zero net inflows from large orders. On the order book, sell-side orders are thicker than buy-side by more than 10%, and the intraday high at 58.99 was touched once but never tested again. The K-line is marked UP, but underneath there’s no fresh money propping it up—just old positions exiting and lifting the price.
So I won’t follow this long; I’m going short directly. For a short-term rebound, let the shorts cover—since chips are being withdrawn and price/volume are diverging, it won’t hold. The day spot’s large orders truly step in and open interest expands again, once 58.99 breaks, I’ll immediately admit I’m wrong and flip long. #dram $DRAM
