81,700 contracts, a notional value of $6.44 billion, and nearly 20% of Deribit’s open options contracts will vanish overnight. This is not an exercise—this is the most dangerous "Options Apocalypse Wheel" in the 2026 crypto market.
On August 28, 2026, Deribit will face an epic expiration of options concentrated in one event. 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts, with a notional value of $6.44 billion, will be fully settled when the Friday bell rings. And Bitcoin has just undergone a violent rally over the past week—from $62,000 to $80,000—marking the second-largest single-week gain in more than three years. A 22.9% weekly surge, overbought RSI, a spike in the greed index—when all of this meets the $6.4 billion derivatives "dam" clogged upstream, the market is standing on the edge of a volcano.
First, the $6.4 billion "blocked-up dam": this isn’t a normal expiry—it’s a structural liquidation storm
Of the 81,700 contracts expiring this time, there are 44,639 call options and 37,061 put options; the put/call ratio is 0.83. On the surface, the market looks bullish—but the real danger is hidden in the details.
The two option strike prices at $75,000 and $80,000 concentrate the largest open interest of call options, with notional values of $236 million and $157 million respectively. Even more importantly, more than $500 million in notional value sits within the current spot price’s 5% volatility band.
Deribit’s Chief Risk Officer Shaun Fernando said plainly: “Nearly 20% of Deribit’s Bitcoin open interest is set to expire.” Combined with the change in the volatility term structure from an inverted spread to a positive spread, Bitcoin volatility index (DVOL) rising by 30% relative, and the call-put skew moving from negative to positive—this will be a “not-to-be-missed expiry date.” This isn’t the routine weekly roll of options; it’s a bottom-layer rebuilding of market structure.
Second, the "death spiral" of Gamma hedging: market makers are setting an invisible net
The biggest damage from option expiry is never whether the contracts are exercised—it’s the hedging behavior of market makers.
When the price approaches the two dense strike clusters at $75,000 and $80,000, market makers are forced to perform large-scale Gamma hedging. The net effect of this hedging can only be one of two outcomes: either "pin" Bitcoin near the key strike prices, or accelerate the move when the price breaks out.
The current market environment amplifies the destructive impact of this effect. The rebound starting from $62,000 has pushed a large number of call options with strike prices below $80,000 into in-the-money status. To hedge these in-the-money exposures, market makers have been forced to keep buying Bitcoin during the rebound—this mechanical buying is one of the core drivers behind the 22% rally over the past week.
And now, 68% of call options are deeply in-the-money, and the required hedging positions have already been accumulated. The engine pushing the price higher has gone quiet. That’s why Bitcoin has been unable to hold above $80,000 for four straight trading days.
Third, the "trap" of the maximum pain point: the harsh truth behind $68,000
The theoretical maximum pain level for this expiry sits near $68,000—i.e., the settlement price that makes the most option contracts worthless.
But note this brutal fact: the maximum pain point formed while Bitcoin was already ranging at $62,000–$66,000. The 22% explosive surge over the past week turned this theoretical value into an unreachable island. Bitcoin is currently trading more than $11,000 above $68,000.
What you truly need to focus on are the dense areas of two in-the-money call option strikes: $75,000 and $80,000. After expiry, the sellers of call options will unwind hedges and start selling the previously held bitcoins used for hedging—this deferred supply totals more than $1 billion.
Fourth, three possible outcomes: which one will you be in?
Based on Deribit data and the views of multiple analysts, the Friday expiry could lead to three possible paths:
Path 1 (55% probability): Range-bound consolidation. Bitcoin chops in the $78,000–$81,800 range, and the market makers’ Gamma hedging will "pin" the price near $75,000–$80,000.
Path 2 (25% probability): Upward breakout. The price breaks through $81,300, and is pushed into the $81,800–$84,500 range via short squeezes.
Path 3 (20% probability): Downward liquidation. Breaking below $78,000 triggers a cascading liquidation of long positions, sending the price plunging toward the $75,000–$77,000 range.
Fifth, key time window and an action framework
Timing: taking Beijing time as an example, Aug 28 at 16:00 is the final settlement moment. The 24–48 hours before expiry (from now until Thursday night) is the most concentrated phase for Gamma hedging.
What to watch on-screen:
· $75,000: The largest cluster of call option strike prices—first line of defense for long positions
· $78,000: The near-term waterline between longs and shorts; falling below triggers a liquidation cascade
· $80,000: A psychological level + an options concentration zone; a breakout needs a massive buy order to confirm
· $81,300–$82,000: A near-term ceiling, with structural sell pressure overhead
Trading discipline:
Volatility stays extremely high before expiry—so it’s advisable to keep position sizes light or stay on the sidelines. If the price is "pinned" in the $78,000–$80,000 range, don’t blindly chase or sell off. This is market makers’ hedging behavior, not the direction of the trend. If, after expiry (after 16:00 Beijing time), a directional breakout appears, watch for confirmation signals at $75,000 (downside) or $82,000 (upside).
❗️Risk warning: This is not investment advice. The expiry of $6.4 billion worth of derivatives is a one-off market event; after expiry, volatility may quickly fall back. The biggest uncertainty is this: if the large amount of hedging flows unwinds after expiry, the resulting price direction may be completely opposite to your position. Don’t stand on the wrong side of this "nuclear explosion"—or, more wisely, choose to stand back and observe.#比特币64亿美元期权将到期 $BTC