Key takeaway:

Nvidia’s earnings report, expectations from the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East jointly drive the market; today’s trading focus remains on the AI compute chain, oil prices, and the US dollar.

[Today’s Main Line]

Main Line 1: After Nvidia’s earnings report, the market continues to focus on AI capital expenditures, memory supply, and pricing for expansions in computing capacity.

Main Line 2: Disruptions in Middle Eastern and Black Sea shipping lift crude oil volatility, and energy prices will continue to influence inflation expectations.

Main Line 3: US PCE remains somewhat sticky, and long-end US Treasuries are under pressure; the US dollar and interest-rate expectations continue to affect risk assets.

Main Line 4: Japan and South Korea’s storage supply chain is strong, and expansion of AI hardware and HBM/NAND is the core trading theme in Asia’s tech sector.

Line 5: The domestic observation focuses on policy and industry-chain directions such as computing power, storage, satellite internet, BeiDou, and power equipment.

【US stocks】

US stocks fell slightly on Wednesday: the Dow fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 fell 0.02%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.08%. Market attention was concentrated on Nvidia’s earnings report. After-hours trading initially dipped and then rebounded. Oracle rose nearly 3% after hours, Salesforce rose 12% after hours, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.6%.

【Macro】

The US July PCE inflation index rose 3.7% year over year, higher than market expectations for a pullback to 3.6%. CME data shows a 63.5% probability that the rate will remain unchanged in September. The 5-year US Treasury auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.37; the winning yield was 4.393%. The US Dollar Index closed up 0.25% at 99.165. EIA data shows that commercial crude oil inventories increased by only 95,000 barrels; gasoline and refined oil inventories declined, and refinery utilization rose to 97.4%.

【AI storage chain】

In Nvidia’s second fiscal quarter, revenue was $96.2 billion, with data center revenue of $89.0 billion. The guidance for the third fiscal quarter is $108.0 billion. The company said that revenue for fiscal 2028 is expected to grow by about 70%. The total contracted commitment is expected to rise to $279 billion, mainly related to purchases of storage chips. Amazon plans to deploy about 2 million Nvidia chips from 2027 to 2028. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix plan to increase their supply of 8-layer HBM4 to Nvidia in the second half of the year. Kioxia plans to build a new factory in Iwate Prefecture with an investment of more than 1 trillion yen. Expansion of AI computing power and storage continues to accelerate.

【Technology and industry】

Apple will hold a launch event in the early hours of September 10 Beijing time, bringing its first foldable-screen iPhone into market view. Google reorganized its AI responsibility team. In the US, OpenAI is advancing data privacy agreements across 16 states and expanding the coverage of the teacher version of ChatGPT. Anthropic has reached a $45 billion computing power deal with Nscale. AI competition is shifting from models to computing power, data centers, and compliance systems.

【Crude oil】

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea continue to support oil prices. WTI and Brent briefly rose by more than 2% intraday. At close, they were $82.23 per barrel and $87.84 per barrel, respectively. The main contract for China’s crude oil (SC) rose 2.14% to 577 yuan per barrel. Tensions related to Russian Black Sea refineries, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran remain key drivers of volatility in the oil market.

【Precious metals】

Gold and silver rose first and then weakened. Spot gold briefly touched $4,610 per ounce, and spot silver briefly rose 1%. Shanghai gold (main contract) closed down 0.74%, and Shanghai silver (main contract) closed down 0.48%. Gold T+D and silver T+D night sessions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also fell. SPDR Gold Trust holdings decreased by 2.853 tons; in the short term, gold prices remain constrained by the US dollar and interest rate expectations.

【Domestic leads】

Shanghai has issued the “14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries in Shanghai” (the “15th Five-Year Plan” for strategic emerging industries development). It proposes to promote integrated development of satellite internet, BeiDou, 6G, and AI. The financing balance of the two markets decreased by 3.294 billion yuan, and short-term funds remain relatively cautious. For directions to watch in A-shares, focus on AI computing power, storage chips, satellite internet, BeiDou, power grid equipment, and the oil transport chain.

【Key schedule】

04:00 Nvidia releases earnings after the US stock market closes

05:00 Nvidia holds an earnings call

14:00 Germany September GfK consumer confidence index

15:00 Ministry of Commerce holds a regular press conference

19:30 ECB releases minutes of the monetary policy meeting

20:30 Canada Q2 current account

20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22

22:30 US EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending August 21

【Risk warning】

If oil prices continue to surge, it may further raise expectations for inflation and interest rates. The high-expectation tug-of-war after Nvidia’s earnings could also amplify volatility in technology stocks. If developments in the Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea shipping, or the Russia–Ukraine conflict change again, risk appetite will continue to be disturbed.

For research and study purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

#财经晨报 #全球市场 #A股 #AI #Technology and industry

For research and study purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.