MU contract positions and spot positions—today it looks like two different coins. Price is up 4% in 24 hours, flipped back to green on the 4-hour chart; the contract’s aggressive buy flow has been strong for seven hours, turning it over to more than double—yet on the spot side, big orders show net inflow for five candles, each time printing zeros. In the order book, the buy side volume is down to only 70% of the sell side—this is exactly like futures getting overheated: not a single extra penny gets pushed into spot.
What’s even worse is this: with buys so fierce, open interest actually shrank by 4.18% over seven hours. Volume is amplifying, positions are being reduced, and price is still being pushed upward. This combination has only one explanation—this isn’t new longs entering; it’s shorts being forced to close and cover. Covering is like an all-burn fuel supply—burn it up and it’s gone. The funding rate is just 0.006%, which is well below the eight-hour average. Even the longs didn’t dare to really add leverage along with it, further proving this isn’t incremental long demand.
The price also pulled back from that top around 978 down to 961, with the 20-line being stepped on again. Looking at the whole round, this move is essentially the contracts lifting their own sedan—spot doesn’t acknowledge it at all.
My stance is very direct: bearish. The covering fuel is limited, and spot isn’t taking the ticket. At most, it can be pushed back up toward the 978 area—eventually it will get knocked back to around 940. The reversal is simple: spot big orders turn positive, order-book buys catch up to sells; or if it breaks and holds above 978 with volume and OI rising again—then, and only then, do the bulls get to speak.
#mu $MU
What’s even worse is this: with buys so fierce, open interest actually shrank by 4.18% over seven hours. Volume is amplifying, positions are being reduced, and price is still being pushed upward. This combination has only one explanation—this isn’t new longs entering; it’s shorts being forced to close and cover. Covering is like an all-burn fuel supply—burn it up and it’s gone. The funding rate is just 0.006%, which is well below the eight-hour average. Even the longs didn’t dare to really add leverage along with it, further proving this isn’t incremental long demand.
The price also pulled back from that top around 978 down to 961, with the 20-line being stepped on again. Looking at the whole round, this move is essentially the contracts lifting their own sedan—spot doesn’t acknowledge it at all.
My stance is very direct: bearish. The covering fuel is limited, and spot isn’t taking the ticket. At most, it can be pushed back up toward the 978 area—eventually it will get knocked back to around 940. The reversal is simple: spot big orders turn positive, order-book buys catch up to sells; or if it breaks and holds above 978 with volume and OI rising again—then, and only then, do the bulls get to speak.
#mu $MU
