Just took a quick look at the Fed’s latest odds: the probability of no rate hike in September is 63.5%, while a hike is only 36.5%. In plain terms, next month is basically a “lie back and relax” scenario—don’t expect any big moves.😴
What really makes me uneasy is October— the probability of no hike drops to 47.3%, the odds of a 25bp hike jump to 43.4%, and a 50bp hike also has a 9.3% chance. These numbers are basically telling us: September gives you a chance to catch your breath, but after October, things could flip at any time.
And there’s also a statement from a big sister (the Boston Fed president) yesterday: she’s currently in support of holding steady, but if inflation doesn’t behave and get down to 2%, then don’t blame her for turning on you—tighten up immediately. It sounds exactly like, “I won’t make a move yet, but you’d better be smart.” Who can really feel at ease?🤷♂️
Now the market has already priced the probability of “at least one more rate hike before year-end” up to 72.7%. It’s almost become a sure bet.
So, brothers trading crypto—don’t get carried away at times like this, and don’t gamble with an empty position. Keep some backup, it’s stronger than anything. If one day the Fed suddenly changes its mind, you’ll still have ammo to add to your position—you won’t just be standing there with your eyes wide open.
Do you think September can really stay put? Or is this just calm before the storm?$BTR
$ONG
#SEC向白宫提交加密托管规则提案 #比特币64亿美元期权将到期
What really makes me uneasy is October— the probability of no hike drops to 47.3%, the odds of a 25bp hike jump to 43.4%, and a 50bp hike also has a 9.3% chance. These numbers are basically telling us: September gives you a chance to catch your breath, but after October, things could flip at any time.
And there’s also a statement from a big sister (the Boston Fed president) yesterday: she’s currently in support of holding steady, but if inflation doesn’t behave and get down to 2%, then don’t blame her for turning on you—tighten up immediately. It sounds exactly like, “I won’t make a move yet, but you’d better be smart.” Who can really feel at ease?🤷♂️
Now the market has already priced the probability of “at least one more rate hike before year-end” up to 72.7%. It’s almost become a sure bet.
So, brothers trading crypto—don’t get carried away at times like this, and don’t gamble with an empty position. Keep some backup, it’s stronger than anything. If one day the Fed suddenly changes its mind, you’ll still have ammo to add to your position—you won’t just be standing there with your eyes wide open.
Do you think September can really stay put? Or is this just calm before the storm?$BTR
$ONG
#SEC向白宫提交加密托管规则提案 #比特币64亿美元期权将到期