How will the U.S. economy move next? My forecast is: a soft landing, but liquidity will not loosen significantly right away.
The latest data reveals a crucial signal:
In July, PCE rose 3.7% year over year, and core PCE was 3.3%—inflation is still clearly above the Fed’s 2% target; however, the U.S. Q2 GDP held at 1.5%. Business investment, consumption, and corporate earnings remain resilient.
This means we’re not in a “economic collapse” scenario. Instead, the economy is still holding up, but inflation prevents the Fed from pivoting to easing too quickly.
My core forecast:
Short term: the Fed stays hawkish → U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated → the U.S. dollar stays relatively strong → volatility increases for BTC and altcoins.
But if inflation starts to fall next, and employment does not deteriorate meaningfully, the market will reprice “a soft landing + rate-cut expectations.”
What really matters isn’t a single question like “will it cut rates in September?”—it’s whether the 10-year Treasury yield can drop below 4.5%.
Right now, 10Y is still above 4.6%, while 30Y is even above 5.1%. Long-end yields continue to pose pressure on risk assets.
So my biggest judgment for the second half is:
Inflation ↓ + employment stable + 10Y ↓ = improving liquidity, with a rotation from BTC → ETH → altcoins becoming more likely.
Conversely, if inflation rebounds again and 10Y keeps rising, the market may first compress valuations, and then sell off altcoins.
The real big move isn’t the day the Fed announces a rate cut. It’s the moment the market becomes convinced that “inflation is under control and the economy is not in recession.”
That is the macro trading logic I’m focusing on right now.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
The latest data reveals a crucial signal:
In July, PCE rose 3.7% year over year, and core PCE was 3.3%—inflation is still clearly above the Fed’s 2% target; however, the U.S. Q2 GDP held at 1.5%. Business investment, consumption, and corporate earnings remain resilient.
This means we’re not in a “economic collapse” scenario. Instead, the economy is still holding up, but inflation prevents the Fed from pivoting to easing too quickly.
My core forecast:
Short term: the Fed stays hawkish → U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated → the U.S. dollar stays relatively strong → volatility increases for BTC and altcoins.
But if inflation starts to fall next, and employment does not deteriorate meaningfully, the market will reprice “a soft landing + rate-cut expectations.”
What really matters isn’t a single question like “will it cut rates in September?”—it’s whether the 10-year Treasury yield can drop below 4.5%.
Right now, 10Y is still above 4.6%, while 30Y is even above 5.1%. Long-end yields continue to pose pressure on risk assets.
So my biggest judgment for the second half is:
Inflation ↓ + employment stable + 10Y ↓ = improving liquidity, with a rotation from BTC → ETH → altcoins becoming more likely.
Conversely, if inflation rebounds again and 10Y keeps rising, the market may first compress valuations, and then sell off altcoins.
The real big move isn’t the day the Fed announces a rate cut. It’s the moment the market becomes convinced that “inflation is under control and the economy is not in recession.”
That is the macro trading logic I’m focusing on right now.
$BTC $ETH $BNB