$SCRT $GPS $ZRO This week is the “Macro Super Week”!
The PCE inflation report comes out on Friday + Warsh’s first appearance at the Jackson Hole conference—can this BTC move hold its ground? All in on the two days.
This week’s market faces a “double verdict.” On Friday (August 26), the July PCE inflation data will be released—this is the Fed’s most closely watched indicator. On the same day, the new chair, Warsh, will make his debut at Jackson Hole with his first speech since taking office.
Two major events landing on the same day means volatility could be cranked up at any moment.
Now, the bulls’ confidence comes from “the Treasury loosening liquidity + Treasury repo operations,” but this logic is built on the premise that “inflation doesn’t run out of control.”
If the PCE data comes in hotter than expected, Warsh will immediately turn hawkish. Then the 80,000 level BTC just broke could be the ceiling for this leg. Conversely, if inflation stays mild and Warsh’s tone remains relatively soft, the liquidity story can continue—possibly taking BTC to 85,000 or even further.
One more signal: the market is betting that Warsh will provide “low guidance.” But if he does the opposite and reiterates the 2% target, that would be the most direct near-term negative catalyst.
Two days decide everything. It’s not recommended to go all-in with heavy positioning before then.
Once the news lands and the direction becomes clear, move—everyone understands the logic of “low risk and no regrets,” but very few people actually manage to do it. #SEC向白宫提交加密托管规则提案 #比特币64亿美元期权将到期 #伊朗称与阿曼霍尔木兹协议未敲定