Based on the key economic data released in August, the Federal Reserve will most likely hold steady at its September 15–16 meeting, keeping interest rates unchanged, with virtually no chance of further rate hikes. On inflation, the July core PCE price index rose only 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year, remaining moderate for several consecutive months. The CPI and PPI figures also largely matched expectations, significantly easing concerns about “runaway inflation.” The labor market cooled even more unexpectedly: July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, far below expectations, while the combined data for May and June were revised down by 103,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, and the key pillars that once supported rate hikes are beginning to loosen. The consumer side also weakened: in July, retail sales fell 0.6% month over month—the largest decline since May 2025—further reinforcing a wait-and-see stance. A Reuters survey shows that 90% of the economists surveyed expect the rate to remain unchanged in September. Overall, September is most likely to be a hold, with the highest probability of the Fed staying put. #9月降息预期