US Stocks | Market Open Live | August 26
Beijing Time 21:30 / US Eastern 09:30. The three major indexes opened slightly lower today. The market has three tough battles to fight all day: the pre-market GDP revision, PCE inflation, and Nvidia’s Q2 earnings after the close—arguably the most critical trading day in August.
1. Opening performance of the three major indexes
- S&P 500: 7668.74 (-0.11%) 5-day +0.4%
- Dow Jones: 53570.33 (-0.01%) 5-day +1.5%
- Nasdaq: 26100.42 (-0.19%) 5-day +0.1%
All three indexes opened slightly lower with moderate trading volume—an all-too-typical “wait-and-see” pattern driven by data releases and earnings reports. The VIX rebounded to 15.71 (+1.68%). Fear sentiment ticked up a bit, but it remains low.
2. Three big events today (all “nuclear weapon” level)
1) Q2 GDP (second reading, pre-market)—market expectations are revised upward, validating the “soft landing” narrative
2) July PCE inflation (pre-market)—the inflation gauge the Fed cares about most; core PCE expected to rise year over year by 2.9%
3) Nvidia FY26 Q2 earnings (after the close)—data center revenue expected at $75.2B, up +92% YoY; networking business expected to be close to $15B in a single quarter (just two years ago it was only $3B/quarter). Nvidia’s opening price was $212.72, down a tiny -0.15%. The market is betting that beating expectations is already the baseline.
3. Pre-market futures vs. actual open
Pre-market futures were slightly under pressure, and the actual open basically matched expectations. There was no trap of a gap-up followed by a breakdown, and no unexpected plunge—institutions are all waiting for the direction Nvidia will provide later this afternoon.
4. Notable stock moves
- META +3.84%—up 8.4% cumulatively this week; AI advertising business remains highly sought after
- Apple +0.50%—the only large-cap tech showing strength against the trend; strong “defensive” capital positioning
- Tesla -1.92%—still weak; down 0.5% over the past 5 days
- NVDA -0.15%—quietly waiting for the after-close; funds don’t dare short or go long aggressively
- Bitcoin-related stocks broadly collapsed: MSTR -2.18% / COIN -1.60% / MARA -2.62%
- Semiconductor ETF SOXX -0.10%; down 1.7% over 5 days—sector sentiment remains weak
5. Crypto correlation outlook (BTC/ETH)
- BTC spot: 78082, -0.68% over 24h; today’s high at 79540 failed to hold
- ETH spot: 2445, -0.43% over 24h—weak correlation
- IBIT (BTC ETF) opened -1.06%; MSTR/COIN fell in sync
Judgment: US stocks opened lower and risk appetite is fading. Today, BTC is likely to continue trading in a range of 77,000–79,500, without breaking into an independent trend. Tonight’s real inflection point is Nvidia’s earnings—if it beats expectations, BTC could ride the momentum to challenge 80,000; if it misses, BTC may directly pull back to test 75,000 support. ETH and alts are weaker—don’t force it without beta.
6. Trading advice: be aggressive tonight or defend?
Overall strategy: defensive first; only act after right-side confirmation
1) Position sizing: cut to below 50% tonight, and wait to add after Nvidia shows the direction
2) Spot traders: accumulate BTC in batches below 77,000; stop loss if it breaks 75,000; don’t chase ahead of Nvidia
3) Options/futures traders: don’t bet on one-way moves on PCE/GDP—volatility isn’t “thick” enough. The true window to place heavy bets is the 5-minute sentiment release after Nvidia’s earnings
4) Sector rotation: META/Apple are capital “safe havens”; semiconductors should be observed for now
Shennong’s verdict: Today isn’t a day to attack—it’s a day to see clearly before moving. Any market fluctuations before the Nvidia earnings are just noise—save your bullets for after the close.
Beijing Time 21:30 / US Eastern 09:30. The three major indexes opened slightly lower today. The market has three tough battles to fight all day: the pre-market GDP revision, PCE inflation, and Nvidia’s Q2 earnings after the close—arguably the most critical trading day in August.
1. Opening performance of the three major indexes
- S&P 500: 7668.74 (-0.11%) 5-day +0.4%
- Dow Jones: 53570.33 (-0.01%) 5-day +1.5%
- Nasdaq: 26100.42 (-0.19%) 5-day +0.1%
All three indexes opened slightly lower with moderate trading volume—an all-too-typical “wait-and-see” pattern driven by data releases and earnings reports. The VIX rebounded to 15.71 (+1.68%). Fear sentiment ticked up a bit, but it remains low.
2. Three big events today (all “nuclear weapon” level)
1) Q2 GDP (second reading, pre-market)—market expectations are revised upward, validating the “soft landing” narrative
2) July PCE inflation (pre-market)—the inflation gauge the Fed cares about most; core PCE expected to rise year over year by 2.9%
3) Nvidia FY26 Q2 earnings (after the close)—data center revenue expected at $75.2B, up +92% YoY; networking business expected to be close to $15B in a single quarter (just two years ago it was only $3B/quarter). Nvidia’s opening price was $212.72, down a tiny -0.15%. The market is betting that beating expectations is already the baseline.
3. Pre-market futures vs. actual open
Pre-market futures were slightly under pressure, and the actual open basically matched expectations. There was no trap of a gap-up followed by a breakdown, and no unexpected plunge—institutions are all waiting for the direction Nvidia will provide later this afternoon.
4. Notable stock moves
- META +3.84%—up 8.4% cumulatively this week; AI advertising business remains highly sought after
- Apple +0.50%—the only large-cap tech showing strength against the trend; strong “defensive” capital positioning
- Tesla -1.92%—still weak; down 0.5% over the past 5 days
- NVDA -0.15%—quietly waiting for the after-close; funds don’t dare short or go long aggressively
- Bitcoin-related stocks broadly collapsed: MSTR -2.18% / COIN -1.60% / MARA -2.62%
- Semiconductor ETF SOXX -0.10%; down 1.7% over 5 days—sector sentiment remains weak
5. Crypto correlation outlook (BTC/ETH)
- BTC spot: 78082, -0.68% over 24h; today’s high at 79540 failed to hold
- ETH spot: 2445, -0.43% over 24h—weak correlation
- IBIT (BTC ETF) opened -1.06%; MSTR/COIN fell in sync
Judgment: US stocks opened lower and risk appetite is fading. Today, BTC is likely to continue trading in a range of 77,000–79,500, without breaking into an independent trend. Tonight’s real inflection point is Nvidia’s earnings—if it beats expectations, BTC could ride the momentum to challenge 80,000; if it misses, BTC may directly pull back to test 75,000 support. ETH and alts are weaker—don’t force it without beta.
6. Trading advice: be aggressive tonight or defend?
Overall strategy: defensive first; only act after right-side confirmation
1) Position sizing: cut to below 50% tonight, and wait to add after Nvidia shows the direction
2) Spot traders: accumulate BTC in batches below 77,000; stop loss if it breaks 75,000; don’t chase ahead of Nvidia
3) Options/futures traders: don’t bet on one-way moves on PCE/GDP—volatility isn’t “thick” enough. The true window to place heavy bets is the 5-minute sentiment release after Nvidia’s earnings
4) Sector rotation: META/Apple are capital “safe havens”; semiconductors should be observed for now
Shennong’s verdict: Today isn’t a day to attack—it’s a day to see clearly before moving. Any market fluctuations before the Nvidia earnings are just noise—save your bullets for after the close.