AAVE—this 15-minute drop is nearly 1%. It looks like a low-volume, slow bleed downward, but it’s not that simple—trading volume jumped straight to 4.9x the normal level. Price also broke below the lower bounds of nearly 20 five-minute K-line ranges. The share of active sell pressure is about 30%, and bids barely stepped in to pick up.
More importantly, OI is continuing to contract: over 15 minutes, positions were reduced by 780K; over the past hour, down 1.7M. This isn’t fresh shorts entering—it looks more like longs are actively deleveraging and exiting to cut losses. The funding rate is still sitting at a high level, which suggests leveraged players haven’t fully given up; they’ve only acknowledged part of the loss for now.
At this point, AAVE itself is right on the edge of the entire pool’s historical extreme range—an abnormal percentile of 94.8%, ranking 7th in the pool. It has been repeatedly confirmed across several consecutive cycles. What’s happening now is more like the last struggle before a storm: the leveraged long positions are being stripped away layer by layer. But the longer this extreme condition persists, the more the probability of a counter-explosion builds up.
Don’t rush to judge direction. Just watch first—within an extreme range, the biggest taboo is getting antsy.
More importantly, OI is continuing to contract: over 15 minutes, positions were reduced by 780K; over the past hour, down 1.7M. This isn’t fresh shorts entering—it looks more like longs are actively deleveraging and exiting to cut losses. The funding rate is still sitting at a high level, which suggests leveraged players haven’t fully given up; they’ve only acknowledged part of the loss for now.
At this point, AAVE itself is right on the edge of the entire pool’s historical extreme range—an abnormal percentile of 94.8%, ranking 7th in the pool. It has been repeatedly confirmed across several consecutive cycles. What’s happening now is more like the last struggle before a storm: the leveraged long positions are being stripped away layer by layer. But the longer this extreme condition persists, the more the probability of a counter-explosion builds up.
Don’t rush to judge direction. Just watch first—within an extreme range, the biggest taboo is getting antsy.
