From a volume-price perspective, looking at BTC: I’m not sure whether what BTC is doing now is an extension of wave 3—whether it’s the top of wave 3 or the top of wave 5. At the 81273 level, the space above opens up to 83–84.
Positioning: The crowdedness is worsening further. The large-holder positioning ratio is 2.256, hitting a new recent high. The direction is still bullish, but this is already an extreme reading. Price is making new highs while OI continues to shrink—rallies are still relying on shorts closing (covering), with no new long capital coming in. This is the biggest concern in this move.
If it breaks below 74,000, the wave-5 structure will be ruined. Then it’s a test of 69. If 69 breaks down, then the bear market bounce ends. #BTC☀ #BTC走势分析
Positioning: The crowdedness is worsening further. The large-holder positioning ratio is 2.256, hitting a new recent high. The direction is still bullish, but this is already an extreme reading. Price is making new highs while OI continues to shrink—rallies are still relying on shorts closing (covering), with no new long capital coming in. This is the biggest concern in this move.
If it breaks below 74,000, the wave-5 structure will be ruined. Then it’s a test of 69. If 69 breaks down, then the bear market bounce ends. #BTC☀ #BTC走势分析