After Bitcoin briefly broke above $81,000 yesterday, it quickly saw a sharp pullback.
This kind of move has happened more than once this week. On Monday, Bitcoin first tried to push through the $80,000 mark and immediately fell back; last night it surged again to 81,200, followed by an even more violent correction.
Looking closely at both attempts to break higher, you can clearly feel a signal: the bulls’ sentiment is fading, and the willingness to chase higher prices is weakening.
Let me share a current view I have on Bitcoin: (personal opinion)
This rally that has risen from the bottom has moved nearly 20,000 points—it's definitely got a bit of “bull market” flavor.
However, I don’t think the probability that it can continue into a sustained bull run is very high, because the macro environment at present is unclear.
Will there be interest-rate hikes this year? That’s still a question mark.
Historically, when it comes to Bitcoin bull markets, aside from the 2015–2017 cycle that was essentially propped up by Chinese capital, the others were closely tied to large-scale liquidity easing.
But this time, not only can’t there be “easing,” inflation is proving stubborn, and there’s no new narrative or fresh channel of capital inflows.
So whether this can continue is truly something to question.
And as for the current market: after Bitcoin broke $80,000, it has clearly lacked momentum to move higher.
Many people see Bitcoin at 78,000 and think about buying the dip for a potential second-wave setup, but in the near term I still believe the risks are relatively high.
Because after this stretch has already climbed nearly 20,000 points, a technical pullback is completely normal—whether it retraces 5,000 points or even more than 10,000, I believe it would be entirely reasonable.#BTC走势分析
This kind of move has happened more than once this week. On Monday, Bitcoin first tried to push through the $80,000 mark and immediately fell back; last night it surged again to 81,200, followed by an even more violent correction.
Looking closely at both attempts to break higher, you can clearly feel a signal: the bulls’ sentiment is fading, and the willingness to chase higher prices is weakening.
Let me share a current view I have on Bitcoin: (personal opinion)
This rally that has risen from the bottom has moved nearly 20,000 points—it's definitely got a bit of “bull market” flavor.
However, I don’t think the probability that it can continue into a sustained bull run is very high, because the macro environment at present is unclear.
Will there be interest-rate hikes this year? That’s still a question mark.
Historically, when it comes to Bitcoin bull markets, aside from the 2015–2017 cycle that was essentially propped up by Chinese capital, the others were closely tied to large-scale liquidity easing.
But this time, not only can’t there be “easing,” inflation is proving stubborn, and there’s no new narrative or fresh channel of capital inflows.
So whether this can continue is truly something to question.
And as for the current market: after Bitcoin broke $80,000, it has clearly lacked momentum to move higher.
Many people see Bitcoin at 78,000 and think about buying the dip for a potential second-wave setup, but in the near term I still believe the risks are relatively high.
Because after this stretch has already climbed nearly 20,000 points, a technical pullback is completely normal—whether it retraces 5,000 points or even more than 10,000, I believe it would be entirely reasonable.#BTC走势分析