It’s up 23%. The least “hot” part of the market right now is actually where things are cooling down—and I’m more willing to watch it closely.
$BTC spot is still at 78536. In the past 24 hours it only moved -0.7%. The high and low are 79563 and 77851, and the range isn’t that big. What’s strange is that contract volume has already reached 9.5 times the spot volume, and the funding rate is still sitting at +0.0089%. That suggests the buyers chasing longs haven’t fully disappeared, but the price hasn’t kept pushing to break above the highs.
With ETF demand staying steady, you’d expect the bulls to get another push—but the tape has started to digest sideways. This is a combination I usually don’t chase.
I haven’t added to my long position. Instead, around 79300 I’ve placed a 5% test short order, with a stop-loss at 79980. My initial target is 78100. The logic is simple: after seven straight days of rallying 23%, a truly strong move should continue by expanding volume and breaking out. It wouldn’t let the contracts just stall and “spin” at the highs. Over the last 24 hours, spot turnover is 1.322 billion, while contracts are 12.598 billion. Leveraged trading is clearly more aggressive than spot. Here, if the buy-side can’t keep up, the pullback will hit the back-of-the-line chasing positions first.
If 79563—the intraday high—holds and stands firm, I’ll cancel the short. I won’t stubbornly fight against it. The ETF flows haven’t broken, and the structure hasn’t broken either. I’m just treating this area as high-level rotation, not as a fresh low-risk place to chase longs. If you’re holding longs, at least make sure you know whether you’re holding a trend trade or an emotions-driven trade.
I also might be wrong—this is my own judgment. $BTC #BTC
$BTC spot is still at 78536. In the past 24 hours it only moved -0.7%. The high and low are 79563 and 77851, and the range isn’t that big. What’s strange is that contract volume has already reached 9.5 times the spot volume, and the funding rate is still sitting at +0.0089%. That suggests the buyers chasing longs haven’t fully disappeared, but the price hasn’t kept pushing to break above the highs.
With ETF demand staying steady, you’d expect the bulls to get another push—but the tape has started to digest sideways. This is a combination I usually don’t chase.
I haven’t added to my long position. Instead, around 79300 I’ve placed a 5% test short order, with a stop-loss at 79980. My initial target is 78100. The logic is simple: after seven straight days of rallying 23%, a truly strong move should continue by expanding volume and breaking out. It wouldn’t let the contracts just stall and “spin” at the highs. Over the last 24 hours, spot turnover is 1.322 billion, while contracts are 12.598 billion. Leveraged trading is clearly more aggressive than spot. Here, if the buy-side can’t keep up, the pullback will hit the back-of-the-line chasing positions first.
If 79563—the intraday high—holds and stands firm, I’ll cancel the short. I won’t stubbornly fight against it. The ETF flows haven’t broken, and the structure hasn’t broken either. I’m just treating this area as high-level rotation, not as a fresh low-risk place to chase longs. If you’re holding longs, at least make sure you know whether you’re holding a trend trade or an emotions-driven trade.
I also might be wrong—this is my own judgment. $BTC #BTC