$83 HYPE—are you in?
First, look at the surface: it’s been a wild ride from 50 bucks to 83. Retail FOMO is chanting “100 isn’t a dream.”
In the past month it’s surged 60%+, and after Trump singled it out, we saw a single-day spike of 11%-25%. In the price discovery area, there’s no trapped-positions overhang, so the candles look textbook-perfect. The weekly/daily charts are in a bullish alignment, and MA5/10/20/50/100/200 are all below the price—trend intact, but the short-term positioning is wildly stretched.
First thing: Trump’s endorsement—and the CFTC compliance on-ramp opens.
Around August 19, Trump publicly said the CFTC is bringing Hyperliquid into the U.S. in a “fully compliant, legal” way. Once the news hit, HYPE rocketed from the 50s/60s straight to 80+. That single day saw a pulse of 11%-25%.
Hyperliquid is shifting from “crypto back-alley playbook” to “a U.S.-compliant, sustainable entry.” What the market is buying isn’t licenses that already landed—it’s the options on “U.S. institutional capital is about to flow in.”
Second thing: AQAv2 share repurchase has started, but the unlock bomb is also here.
Starting August 26, AQAv2 officially begins accruing interest and routing it into buyback-and-burn. It’s expected that a large portion of the USDC reserve earnings will be converted into HYPE buybacks. Add to that: the protocol’s own daily trading volume in the billions, fee income dwarfing top L1 chains, and 99% of fees going to buyback-and-burn.
But on August 29, 14.18 million HYPE will unlock—on the order of about $1.2 billion.
Third thing: Today we still have PCE + GDP, and Friday is Jackson Hole.
Today (Aug 26) is the U.S. July PCE plus the revised Q2 GDP figures. Friday, the newly appointed Fed chair Warsh gives his first keynote speech.
The macro backdrop: after BTC just bounced on the weekly chart, it took profit in the 78-81k zone, while the dollar, Treasuries, and tariffs are all churning up noise.
If PCE is cool + Warsh is dovish → likely push toward 84-87.
If PCE is hot + Warsh is hawkish → first drop to around 80, and deeper could be 77-78.
Trading strategy
Conservative players:
Buy lightly on pullbacks and stabilization at 78.8-80.2
If the daily close holds above 83.8, chase the breakout; stop loss at 81.5
Targets in batches: 85.5 / 87.5 / 90
If it breaks below 77, reduce position. If it breaks below 75, exit.
Short-term traders:
Do small swing highs and lows with 83, within the range 80-83.8
Trim/lock profit at 83.3-83.8, then re-enter at 79.8-80.5.
What to do with existing positions:
If cost is below 70: cut 30%-50% near 83 to get back principal
If cost is 78-81: prioritize breakeven; move stop loss up to 77.5-78
If cost is 82.5+: either strictly stop out at 80.8, or reduce to a tiny position and wait for unlocks before reassessing
Short positions:
On a failed rebound at 83.5-84, take a light short; targets 81 / 79.5; stop loss 84.3
First, look at the surface: it’s been a wild ride from 50 bucks to 83. Retail FOMO is chanting “100 isn’t a dream.”
In the past month it’s surged 60%+, and after Trump singled it out, we saw a single-day spike of 11%-25%. In the price discovery area, there’s no trapped-positions overhang, so the candles look textbook-perfect. The weekly/daily charts are in a bullish alignment, and MA5/10/20/50/100/200 are all below the price—trend intact, but the short-term positioning is wildly stretched.
First thing: Trump’s endorsement—and the CFTC compliance on-ramp opens.
Around August 19, Trump publicly said the CFTC is bringing Hyperliquid into the U.S. in a “fully compliant, legal” way. Once the news hit, HYPE rocketed from the 50s/60s straight to 80+. That single day saw a pulse of 11%-25%.
Hyperliquid is shifting from “crypto back-alley playbook” to “a U.S.-compliant, sustainable entry.” What the market is buying isn’t licenses that already landed—it’s the options on “U.S. institutional capital is about to flow in.”
Second thing: AQAv2 share repurchase has started, but the unlock bomb is also here.
Starting August 26, AQAv2 officially begins accruing interest and routing it into buyback-and-burn. It’s expected that a large portion of the USDC reserve earnings will be converted into HYPE buybacks. Add to that: the protocol’s own daily trading volume in the billions, fee income dwarfing top L1 chains, and 99% of fees going to buyback-and-burn.
But on August 29, 14.18 million HYPE will unlock—on the order of about $1.2 billion.
Third thing: Today we still have PCE + GDP, and Friday is Jackson Hole.
Today (Aug 26) is the U.S. July PCE plus the revised Q2 GDP figures. Friday, the newly appointed Fed chair Warsh gives his first keynote speech.
The macro backdrop: after BTC just bounced on the weekly chart, it took profit in the 78-81k zone, while the dollar, Treasuries, and tariffs are all churning up noise.
If PCE is cool + Warsh is dovish → likely push toward 84-87.
If PCE is hot + Warsh is hawkish → first drop to around 80, and deeper could be 77-78.
Trading strategy
Conservative players:
Buy lightly on pullbacks and stabilization at 78.8-80.2
If the daily close holds above 83.8, chase the breakout; stop loss at 81.5
Targets in batches: 85.5 / 87.5 / 90
If it breaks below 77, reduce position. If it breaks below 75, exit.
Short-term traders:
Do small swing highs and lows with 83, within the range 80-83.8
Trim/lock profit at 83.3-83.8, then re-enter at 79.8-80.5.
What to do with existing positions:
If cost is below 70: cut 30%-50% near 83 to get back principal
If cost is 78-81: prioritize breakeven; move stop loss up to 77.5-78
If cost is 82.5+: either strictly stop out at 80.8, or reduce to a tiny position and wait for unlocks before reassessing
Short positions:
On a failed rebound at 83.5-84, take a light short; targets 81 / 79.5; stop loss 84.3
