Don’t hold too much hope for Wosch.
This old guy is set to deliver his first keynote address as the new chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve at 10 p.m. on Friday, August 28, in Jackson Hole. But the theme is “Financial Innovation: The Impact on Payments and Policy”—clearly leaving room for him to “play it by the book.”
He himself admits the speech script is “a blank sheet,” and he hasn’t decided whether to focus on the macro picture or provide policy guidance. Barclays directly said he’s unlikely to offer near-term policy guidance. After taking office, he has embraced a “quieter Fed,” deliberately avoiding forward guidance—expecting him to lay out a clear path? Better to expect a pyramid to grow an oasis on its own.
But the market can’t wait! The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries once spiked to 5.33%, the highest since 2007. Former Philadelphia Fed president Harker has said: “Wosch must respond to inflation directly”; Goldman Sachs also warned that vague communication would make interest rates fluctuate even more sharply.
On Friday night, the most likely script for the market is “either stop the losses or wipe out the shorts.” Good trades are waited for—they aren’t bet into existence. After Wosch finishes speaking and the market digests it, acting then is one hundred times more solid than gambling on direction.
#USTreasuryLaunchesQuantumReadinessWorkingGroup
This old guy is set to deliver his first keynote address as the new chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve at 10 p.m. on Friday, August 28, in Jackson Hole. But the theme is “Financial Innovation: The Impact on Payments and Policy”—clearly leaving room for him to “play it by the book.”
He himself admits the speech script is “a blank sheet,” and he hasn’t decided whether to focus on the macro picture or provide policy guidance. Barclays directly said he’s unlikely to offer near-term policy guidance. After taking office, he has embraced a “quieter Fed,” deliberately avoiding forward guidance—expecting him to lay out a clear path? Better to expect a pyramid to grow an oasis on its own.
But the market can’t wait! The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries once spiked to 5.33%, the highest since 2007. Former Philadelphia Fed president Harker has said: “Wosch must respond to inflation directly”; Goldman Sachs also warned that vague communication would make interest rates fluctuate even more sharply.
On Friday night, the most likely script for the market is “either stop the losses or wipe out the shorts.” Good trades are waited for—they aren’t bet into existence. After Wosch finishes speaking and the market digests it, acting then is one hundred times more solid than gambling on direction.
#USTreasuryLaunchesQuantumReadinessWorkingGroup