Globally in the crypto market, nothing has changed—we’re still in the same range. At the moment it’s at 78912.
Fear and Greed Index - 65
Crypto market capitalization - $2.63T.
Crypto market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH - $0.747T.
Bitcoin dominance - 60.25%
Yesterday Bitcoin set a new local high at 81272 and then went into a small pullback. In essence, I told you about 81300 from the upper levels. I also wrote that I don’t expect any major breakdown for now. From the main support, it’s the 75400 level. Ideally, it shouldn’t be broken; above 77300. So, as long as we’re above this zone, I don’t expect a deep correction. On the contrary, I expect the week to close with minimal volatility, a resumption of the weekly bullish imbalance, adding more shorts from above, and then a final breakout and liquidation of these shorts. After that, a more significant correction will likely be expected in the newly formed bullish weekly imbalance at that time. A critically important level is 68k; if the weekly bar closes below it, all growth scenarios are invalidated. For now, I believe we will be trading in the range 77300-80200. By the end of the week, we can expect the fractal at 82500 to be taken, with a move somewhere toward 83200.
The Bitcoin chart is already overbought, and above 80k there is gradually some unloading, but it may still rise again sharply. So, as they say in the subway - be attentive and careful.
By the way, oil has been falling for the third day in a row, yesterday it broke the important level of 91, I think it will correct further to 83. And then we will need to watch; there may be a bounce. But if that is broken too, then the road will be to 77.
Gold reached 4700, I remind you that I mentioned the potential for growth to 4800, and then there is a fork: either we will go into correction, or in the event of a weekly bar breakout and consolidation above it, then the road will open toward the ATH area, at least to 5200. But my priority is that a significant correction will start from 4800, which could send the price to 3700.
From the news
Yesterday the total net inflow of spot BTC ETFs amounted to ~$314.3 million.
The total net inflow of spot ETH ETFs amounted to ~$179.8 million.
Market maker Wintermute noted that Bitcoin's recent rise, which broke through a six-week range, was largely driven by a short squeeze.
Bank associations from 39 U.S. states have united in an alliance called BankChain and intend to develop their own blockchain network.
Japanese authorities plan to tokenize bank money for settlements on the blockchain.
LayerZero, in partnership with Citadel Securities and DTCC, will launch the institutional crypto exchange ATLAS in the fall.
The preferred scenario for today is Bitcoin in a range with a lower boundary at 75400-77300 and an upper one at 79100-80300
Alternative - Bitcoin consolidation below 75400