Guys, tonight is Nvidia’s earnings report, but first Migo has to say one thing: the earnings numbers are in the past— the earnings call is the future.
First, look at the numbers on the table
The company’s own guidance is revenue of $91.0 billion (±2%) and a gross margin of 75%. Wall Street is slightly higher, expecting revenue around $92.0 billion and EPS of about $2.08 to $2.09. The room for an “upside surprise” in the market’s expectations is already quite limited. The options market is pricing post-earnings stock volatility of about ±5.4% to 5.9%, which implies that more than $280 billion in market cap could be re-rated. The stock has been falling for seven straight days before the earnings—suggesting institutions are already hedging in advance.
Five signals that the earnings call truly needs to deliver
First: the order quality for AI cloud. Is the expansion by new players like CoreWeave and Nebius powered by funding or by real revenue? In August, Nvidia pulled in BlackRock and Goldman Sachs to set up a $500 billion AI compute financing platform. If customer utilization rises, financing becomes an accelerator; if utilization just stays flat, financing is essentially debt.
Second: whether Rubin can connect seamlessly with Blackwell. Shipping two generations together improves revenue visibility. The danger sign is management spending a lot of time talking about system complexity, or saying customer data centers aren’t ready—once you hear that, it’s basically a polite way of pushing revenue out.
Third: the standalone revenue contribution from Vera CPU. Last quarter it provided visibility close to $20 billion. Nvidia is moving into Intel and AMD’s territory—adding another growth curve for CPUs.
Fourth: whether it can hold the 75% gross margin. Due to rising memory chip costs, AI server pricing next year could increase by more than 15%. If the complete systems get more expensive and gross margin can still stay at 75%, pricing power remains in Huang Renxun’s hands. But if pricing rises and gross margin still falls, it means profit is shifting toward the storage segment.
Fifth: the depth and speed of Nvidia’s involvement. The 8GW Ohio project: invest $1.5 billion and also bundle in credit support. In the past, Nvidia mainly took on supply-chain risks; going forward, it will face both project-construction risk and customer credit risk. The business model is changing, so the valuation logic has to change too.
Conclusion is simple: whether order quality is improving or deteriorating, whether gross margin can be defended, and the depth and speed of Nvidia stepping in—if all three skew positive, the market trend can continue. If orders worsen and gross margin slides, even if revenue beats expectations, you’ll have to re-weigh the valuation. #英伟达 $NVDAB
First, look at the numbers on the table
The company’s own guidance is revenue of $91.0 billion (±2%) and a gross margin of 75%. Wall Street is slightly higher, expecting revenue around $92.0 billion and EPS of about $2.08 to $2.09. The room for an “upside surprise” in the market’s expectations is already quite limited. The options market is pricing post-earnings stock volatility of about ±5.4% to 5.9%, which implies that more than $280 billion in market cap could be re-rated. The stock has been falling for seven straight days before the earnings—suggesting institutions are already hedging in advance.
Five signals that the earnings call truly needs to deliver
First: the order quality for AI cloud. Is the expansion by new players like CoreWeave and Nebius powered by funding or by real revenue? In August, Nvidia pulled in BlackRock and Goldman Sachs to set up a $500 billion AI compute financing platform. If customer utilization rises, financing becomes an accelerator; if utilization just stays flat, financing is essentially debt.
Second: whether Rubin can connect seamlessly with Blackwell. Shipping two generations together improves revenue visibility. The danger sign is management spending a lot of time talking about system complexity, or saying customer data centers aren’t ready—once you hear that, it’s basically a polite way of pushing revenue out.
Third: the standalone revenue contribution from Vera CPU. Last quarter it provided visibility close to $20 billion. Nvidia is moving into Intel and AMD’s territory—adding another growth curve for CPUs.
Fourth: whether it can hold the 75% gross margin. Due to rising memory chip costs, AI server pricing next year could increase by more than 15%. If the complete systems get more expensive and gross margin can still stay at 75%, pricing power remains in Huang Renxun’s hands. But if pricing rises and gross margin still falls, it means profit is shifting toward the storage segment.
Fifth: the depth and speed of Nvidia’s involvement. The 8GW Ohio project: invest $1.5 billion and also bundle in credit support. In the past, Nvidia mainly took on supply-chain risks; going forward, it will face both project-construction risk and customer credit risk. The business model is changing, so the valuation logic has to change too.
Conclusion is simple: whether order quality is improving or deteriorating, whether gross margin can be defended, and the depth and speed of Nvidia stepping in—if all three skew positive, the market trend can continue. If orders worsen and gross margin slides, even if revenue beats expectations, you’ll have to re-weigh the valuation. #英伟达 $NVDAB