$BTC Overnight it let go of 80,000 on the integer level; over 24 hours it fell to $78.9k, and that push on 8-25 might as well have been for nothing. On the emotion side, the heat cooled: the Fear & Greed index dropped from 74 to 65. Even though it’s still in the greed zone, it’s not the same rhythm as the past two days making fresh highs. The US Dollar Index at 98.96 didn’t move, and the US 10Y yield at 4.643% is stuck in place—neither of those is giving a direction. What you really need to watch is the Jackson Hole central bank meeting this weekend. Core inflation in July at 3.3% is right at the doorstep, and rate-hike expectations for September have started popping up again. Money would rather wait on the sidelines: two major USD stablecoins total $256.8B, up slightly—no one has truly stepped in.
On the spot ETF channel, the news side has already moved. Yesterday saw net inflows of $314.3M, and BlackRock’s IBIT alone had $284.4M in a single day. But the data interface is stuck at 2025-08-25 for a full year; the API is decoupled from the news by 366 days. On the institutional front, things can be real or not—so you have to check the news yourself for confirmation.
If breaking and holding above $78k can’t be sustained, the integer-level offensive turns from “let’s charge again” into “let’s have one more go.” F&G 65 keeps sliding down one notch—sentiment is about to be driven into the neutral zone. Only once we’re back above 80k should we talk about upside space.
#比特币回踩整数位 #杰克逊霍尔前夜资金候场 #macro
On the spot ETF channel, the news side has already moved. Yesterday saw net inflows of $314.3M, and BlackRock’s IBIT alone had $284.4M in a single day. But the data interface is stuck at 2025-08-25 for a full year; the API is decoupled from the news by 366 days. On the institutional front, things can be real or not—so you have to check the news yourself for confirmation.
If breaking and holding above $78k can’t be sustained, the integer-level offensive turns from “let’s charge again” into “let’s have one more go.” F&G 65 keeps sliding down one notch—sentiment is about to be driven into the neutral zone. Only once we’re back above 80k should we talk about upside space.
#比特币回踩整数位 #杰克逊霍尔前夜资金候场 #macro
