Failed to break through 79,200 three times; this BTC rebound may only be setting up better “targets” for the shorts—there’s still a stop-loss pool below 77,800, and the main force hasn’t swept it clean yet.
After falling from the 81,270 high, the 4H peak keeps making lower highs; on the 1H chart, although it rebounded from 77,808 to 79,200, both times the push near 79,180 was pushed back, and the rebound structure has started to weaken.
1. Naked K | The rebound hasn’t changed the trend
The 4H is currently weak “repair” after a pullback from the high; the key resistance lies at 79,450–80,200. On the 1H, after rebounding from 77,808, it failed to break the prior high of 79,200, and has now returned to around 78,800—suggesting the bulls can’t absorb well. This rebound looks more like repair than a reversal.
2. Hunting path | Sweep below first, or lure longs first?
Below, 77,800–78,250 is a clear long stop-loss and liquidity pool. Above, 79,200–80,000 is trapped-position supply and the short-defense zone.
My view: the main force is more likely to first rebound the price to around 79,450,诱骗 a batch of chase-long buyers, then test down to 78,250 and even pierce 77,800. Only if it returns with volume and holds above 80,200 will the short path be invalidated.
Main shorts | Sell into the resistance zone
Primary entry: place shorts around 79,450
Add position: place shorts around 80,200, with the top edge of the supply zone as the “lure spike”
Unified stop-loss: 81,550
Targets: around 78,250; if it strongly breaks down, watch 77,800
Supporting longs | Buy when price dips into the demand area
Primary entry: buy around 77,300, with a “fake breakdown” outside the liquidity pool
Unified stop-loss: 76,550
Target: around 79,450
Current execution suggestion: at 78,892 don’t chase shorts, and don’t chase longs either. Wait first for the rebound to 79,450–80,200 to place shorts; if it sells off first down to around 77,300, then consider taking a small-lot long. Low leverage, scale in/out in batches, keep your stop-loss tight—staying alive matters more than making money.
Do you think BTC will first sweep 77,800, or first push up to 80,000? Leave your direction in the comments.
Personal thoughts only—just for reference!
#美伊据报达成停火共识 $BTC
After falling from the 81,270 high, the 4H peak keeps making lower highs; on the 1H chart, although it rebounded from 77,808 to 79,200, both times the push near 79,180 was pushed back, and the rebound structure has started to weaken.
1. Naked K | The rebound hasn’t changed the trend
The 4H is currently weak “repair” after a pullback from the high; the key resistance lies at 79,450–80,200. On the 1H, after rebounding from 77,808, it failed to break the prior high of 79,200, and has now returned to around 78,800—suggesting the bulls can’t absorb well. This rebound looks more like repair than a reversal.
2. Hunting path | Sweep below first, or lure longs first?
Below, 77,800–78,250 is a clear long stop-loss and liquidity pool. Above, 79,200–80,000 is trapped-position supply and the short-defense zone.
My view: the main force is more likely to first rebound the price to around 79,450,诱骗 a batch of chase-long buyers, then test down to 78,250 and even pierce 77,800. Only if it returns with volume and holds above 80,200 will the short path be invalidated.
Main shorts | Sell into the resistance zone
Primary entry: place shorts around 79,450
Add position: place shorts around 80,200, with the top edge of the supply zone as the “lure spike”
Unified stop-loss: 81,550
Targets: around 78,250; if it strongly breaks down, watch 77,800
Supporting longs | Buy when price dips into the demand area
Primary entry: buy around 77,300, with a “fake breakdown” outside the liquidity pool
Unified stop-loss: 76,550
Target: around 79,450
Current execution suggestion: at 78,892 don’t chase shorts, and don’t chase longs either. Wait first for the rebound to 79,450–80,200 to place shorts; if it sells off first down to around 77,300, then consider taking a small-lot long. Low leverage, scale in/out in batches, keep your stop-loss tight—staying alive matters more than making money.
Do you think BTC will first sweep 77,800, or first push up to 80,000? Leave your direction in the comments.
Personal thoughts only—just for reference!
#美伊据报达成停火共识 $BTC
