CRCL is still rising, up 2.55% over the past 24 hours; it bounced back all the way from 84.6 to 91.7. — The moves in the tradable order book and the candlestick chart are clearly “twisted” together: aggressive buy orders account for only 46.8%, the fee rate drops back from the 8-hour average of 0.015% down to 0. And the number of people willing to extend longs is almost gone.
What’s truly glaring is the group holding the largest positions. Over the last seven hours, the whale accounts cut their long-vs-short ratio by 6.1%, and their long-vs-short positioning ratio fell by 3.45%; yet their net-long share is still stuck at 72.8%. — The phase during which the price bounces upward is exactly when the people with the most inventory start reducing their positions. This is profit-taking, not adding.
The spot side also hasn’t given any endorsement for the rebound: net inflows for large orders across the most recent windows are all 0, and contract open interest shrank by 1.75% in a day. — This bounce hasn’t been met with incremental capital to fill the gap.
My stance: I’m shorting CRCL. The price has already touched both the 20/50 dual moving averages. In the 4-hour timeframe, 4 out of the 6 candlesticks are bearish; momentum has dulled.
If, by some chance, the whales add positions back above 75%, and the aggressive buy side once again pushes back over the sell side, and if spot large orders show genuine net inflows—then that would be new money entering the market. In that case, my short thesis becomes invalid; I’ll immediately admit I was wrong.
#crcl $CRCL
What’s truly glaring is the group holding the largest positions. Over the last seven hours, the whale accounts cut their long-vs-short ratio by 6.1%, and their long-vs-short positioning ratio fell by 3.45%; yet their net-long share is still stuck at 72.8%. — The phase during which the price bounces upward is exactly when the people with the most inventory start reducing their positions. This is profit-taking, not adding.
The spot side also hasn’t given any endorsement for the rebound: net inflows for large orders across the most recent windows are all 0, and contract open interest shrank by 1.75% in a day. — This bounce hasn’t been met with incremental capital to fill the gap.
My stance: I’m shorting CRCL. The price has already touched both the 20/50 dual moving averages. In the 4-hour timeframe, 4 out of the 6 candlesticks are bearish; momentum has dulled.
If, by some chance, the whales add positions back above 75%, and the aggressive buy side once again pushes back over the sell side, and if spot large orders show genuine net inflows—then that would be new money entering the market. In that case, my short thesis becomes invalid; I’ll immediately admit I was wrong.
#crcl $CRCL
