LINK The strangest part is that the bid/ask appears ferocious, but the money is actually running out: the spot market’s aggressive buy orders pushed the sell side down to 1.93, and the depth bids are also thicker by 65%. Yet in three hours, net spot outflows totaled 3.44 million, all 12 candles are negative, and the large orders are still net withdrawing—what’s propping the price is small orders, while big money is pulling out.
The structure is also clear: over 7 days it was pushed from 9.48 to 12.6, but on 8/25 it only touched 12.02, lower than 12.625 on 8/22, and the rebound highs have been stepping down. Now it has fallen below the 15-minute dual moving averages at 11.36. With five consecutive four-hour bearish candles, the 4H indicators point downward—fatigue/exhaustion is marked.
To choose direction, look at the futures side: aggressive buy orders are down to only 35%; open interest over the past 24 hours dropped 8%. The quadrant indicator shows bear_capitulation—bulls are laying down their arms, not bears covering. RSI is 78.5 and MFI is 87.6, both in the overbought zone, and volume/strength is also insufficient. This rally originally had no real volume.
At this level I’m going short. Enter short on the rebound at 11.4–11.5. Stop loss above 12.02. First target 11.13; if it breaks, it should run toward 9.48. A reversal only matters if the futures aggressive buy orders push back above the sell side, open interest stops falling, and spot capital turns positive.
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The structure is also clear: over 7 days it was pushed from 9.48 to 12.6, but on 8/25 it only touched 12.02, lower than 12.625 on 8/22, and the rebound highs have been stepping down. Now it has fallen below the 15-minute dual moving averages at 11.36. With five consecutive four-hour bearish candles, the 4H indicators point downward—fatigue/exhaustion is marked.
To choose direction, look at the futures side: aggressive buy orders are down to only 35%; open interest over the past 24 hours dropped 8%. The quadrant indicator shows bear_capitulation—bulls are laying down their arms, not bears covering. RSI is 78.5 and MFI is 87.6, both in the overbought zone, and volume/strength is also insufficient. This rally originally had no real volume.
At this level I’m going short. Enter short on the rebound at 11.4–11.5. Stop loss above 12.02. First target 11.13; if it breaks, it should run toward 9.48. A reversal only matters if the futures aggressive buy orders push back above the sell side, open interest stops falling, and spot capital turns positive.
#link $LINK
