$TAC This upward surge has something to it: in just 15 minutes it jumped up 11 points, with volume soaring to 9.6x. In the order book, active buy orders are leading, with a buy/sell ratio of 1.27—clearly someone is aggressively eating.
But take note: while the price is rising, the contract open interest is actually falling (15 minutes: -4.3%, 1 hour: -5%). This is a typical short-covering-driven move, not a kind of healthy uptrend caused by new long positions entering. The abnormal percentile for OI has already reached 95%, ranking seventh across the whole pool. Nominal change is also squeezed into the top 12. The funding is fighting hard at this level.
Now watch the resistance: can it hold above the prior high? If it continues to break through with increased volume, then it’s fine to say so. But if volume can’t keep up, be careful of a long trap. After all, this kind of surge looks a lot like a violent squeeze that blows out the shorts, followed by a rest zone—chasing higher doesn’t feel that comfortable.
But take note: while the price is rising, the contract open interest is actually falling (15 minutes: -4.3%, 1 hour: -5%). This is a typical short-covering-driven move, not a kind of healthy uptrend caused by new long positions entering. The abnormal percentile for OI has already reached 95%, ranking seventh across the whole pool. Nominal change is also squeezed into the top 12. The funding is fighting hard at this level.
Now watch the resistance: can it hold above the prior high? If it continues to break through with increased volume, then it’s fine to say so. But if volume can’t keep up, be careful of a long trap. After all, this kind of surge looks a lot like a violent squeeze that blows out the shorts, followed by a rest zone—chasing higher doesn’t feel that comfortable.
