🦋US Treasury Butterfly Effect · Part 1: That Butterfly

In the late hours of August 18, a number quietly changed.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 5.33%—the highest point in 19 years. No drums, no fanfare, no breaking news headlines—most people’s screens wouldn’t even show this number.

But it was that butterfly, flapping its wings.

A few days later, Bitcoin surged from $63,000 to $80,000 in a frenzy. More than $4 billion worth of short positions around the world were wiped out. Ethereum and altcoins all took off together. The entire crypto world believed it was witnessing a “bull market,” yet no one asked: where did this wind come from in the first place?

The answer is hidden in the bond market.

In the next few installments, we’ll take apart this butterfly’s wings for you, frame by frame.

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