The “fake breakout” in BTC has already appeared: first look at 76,800—75,700, then consider going long!
It’s been a week since the last update—not because I’m being lazy, but because I was waiting for the range to give a clear answer. Previously, BTC had been consolidating between 75,600 and 79,500. Guessing the direction too early wasn’t meaningful. Now that it broke upward and then fell back into the range, the structure is finally clear.
Why look for a drop first?
The top of the original range for BTC is around 79,511. After the price broke out, it surged to a high of 81,270, but it couldn’t hold. It then dropped back below 79,500.
This suggests the breakout wasn’t accepted by the market: the old range top didn’t successfully turn into support. The long positions that chased the breakout are now trapped, and their stop-losses will create additional sell pressure. Most likely, the price will retest the middle and lower part of the range. So the short-term view is clear: below 79,500, expect a pullback, with targets at 76,800—75,700.
Trade plan:
Short-term short
If the price rebounds to 79,300—79,500 and can’t hold, you may consider shorting.
Stop-loss: above 80,200
First target: 78,400
Second target: 76,800
Final target: 75,700
If price directly breaks below 78,400, wait for the 78,400 retest to fail, then short—don’t chase the short entry following a bearish candle.
Short-term long:
When the price enters 76,800—75,700, stop chasing shorts and start looking for long opportunities.
My entry conditions: 1-hour chart shows a clear selling stop and then the price reclaims 76,800 before going long.
Stop-loss: below 75,500
First target: 77,800
Second target: 79,500
Third target: 81,200
If the 4-hour closing price breaks below 75,600, cancel the long plan; the next support to watch is around 74,100.
Invalidation conditions:
If BTC reclaims 79,800 and the subsequent retest at 79,500 holds without breaking, it means the fake-breakout structure has been repaired—at that point I will no longer look at 76,800.
Nothing like that has happened yet, so my main scenario remains unchanged:
First look for a pullback to 76,800—75,700, then look for long opportunities. Don’t chase longs around 79,000; and don’t chase shorts once price is approaching the target zone.
At 20:30 tonight there will be major US data. Before the event, cut positions in half, and strictly use stop-losses.
$BTC #BTC合约 #行情分析📈 #交易计划
It’s been a week since the last update—not because I’m being lazy, but because I was waiting for the range to give a clear answer. Previously, BTC had been consolidating between 75,600 and 79,500. Guessing the direction too early wasn’t meaningful. Now that it broke upward and then fell back into the range, the structure is finally clear.
Why look for a drop first?
The top of the original range for BTC is around 79,511. After the price broke out, it surged to a high of 81,270, but it couldn’t hold. It then dropped back below 79,500.
This suggests the breakout wasn’t accepted by the market: the old range top didn’t successfully turn into support. The long positions that chased the breakout are now trapped, and their stop-losses will create additional sell pressure. Most likely, the price will retest the middle and lower part of the range. So the short-term view is clear: below 79,500, expect a pullback, with targets at 76,800—75,700.
Trade plan:
Short-term short
If the price rebounds to 79,300—79,500 and can’t hold, you may consider shorting.
Stop-loss: above 80,200
First target: 78,400
Second target: 76,800
Final target: 75,700
If price directly breaks below 78,400, wait for the 78,400 retest to fail, then short—don’t chase the short entry following a bearish candle.
Short-term long:
When the price enters 76,800—75,700, stop chasing shorts and start looking for long opportunities.
My entry conditions: 1-hour chart shows a clear selling stop and then the price reclaims 76,800 before going long.
Stop-loss: below 75,500
First target: 77,800
Second target: 79,500
Third target: 81,200
If the 4-hour closing price breaks below 75,600, cancel the long plan; the next support to watch is around 74,100.
Invalidation conditions:
If BTC reclaims 79,800 and the subsequent retest at 79,500 holds without breaking, it means the fake-breakout structure has been repaired—at that point I will no longer look at 76,800.
Nothing like that has happened yet, so my main scenario remains unchanged:
First look for a pullback to 76,800—75,700, then look for long opportunities. Don’t chase longs around 79,000; and don’t chase shorts once price is approaching the target zone.
At 20:30 tonight there will be major US data. Before the event, cut positions in half, and strictly use stop-losses.
$BTC #BTC合约 #行情分析📈 #交易计划
