Hello everyone, I am Lao Liu
Today is August 26, 2026
Wednesday
Gold’s move yesterday was full of twists and turns. In the morning, it initially surged in an attempt to test 4700 but failed and then came under pressure, pulling back for a correction. In the evening, it retreated to around 4605 before rebounding. In the end, the daily chart closed with a bullish doji candle featuring both upper and lower wicks.
Judging from the daily chart structure, yesterday’s gold closed as a doji candle, indicating that bulls and bears are in contention. However, considering the state of a bearish divergence at the top on the daily-level indicators, yesterday still reflected that the bulls had some momentum but lacked sufficient strength. Without any further positive catalysts from the fundamentals, bullish sentiment in gold is still hard to sustain.
Today’s gold still maintains a sideways expectation first. On the upside, focus on the pressure battle at 4680 and 4700. If it cannot break through today, then technical adjustment needs may take the lead, forcing the market to undergo a technical retracement. On the downside, still pay attention to the 5-day moving average zone. The 5-day line has moved up to around 4615-4617, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown. If it breaks, then continue to watch the 4600 round-number level. If late-evening data is bearish for gold, it may bring a deeper pullback at a larger level. On the downside again, you can look for a retracement toward the 10-day line around 4510-4500.
Based on the hourly chart trend, although gold is currently staying high, it has clearly entered a sideways range. For now, intraday it is expected to fluctuate within 4680-4515. Technically, my subjective expectation still leans more toward an adjustment and retracement. That is, if during the day price returns to below the hourly moving average zone of 4645-4640, then the overall structural focus will tilt downward and may bring a larger pullback.
In terms of operations, for gold, the main intraday idea can continue to hold the expectation of an adjustment. However, it is still necessary to guard against risks of sentiment swings that may be caused by fundamentals.
In the daytime trading today, it is currently expected that price will fluctuate within the 4680-4615 range. Aggressive traders may focus on quick-long at lows and sell short at highs around this range, with a bias toward choosing higher levels to short-term short at higher prices.
If intraday price tests the 4670-4680 area again, aggressive traders may try another short at that time. Take a manual stop-loss if it holds above 4685. The target is on the downside at 4650-4640 first, where you reduce positions and shift to break-even stop-loss. The remaining long positions should be reduced again around 4615 and 4600.
If intraday price does not break 4680, and during the European session it returns below 4645-40, then aggressive traders can wait to test pressure around 4640-4645 and do another short. The specific strategy should be adjusted in real time.
【Oil Analysis】
Yesterday, US crude oil first traded with weak sideways movement, which is a technical adjustment and retracement. However, in the afternoon, due to news that the US proposed to lift the sanctions and reopen the strait, US crude oil was sold off in the short term, and the price continued to fall to around 81.5. The US session did not rebound either. Instead, renewed expectations of a ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered further downside, pushing US crude oil down to around 80.2. In the daily chart, it ultimately closed with a large bearish candle.
Judging from yesterday’s crude oil price action rhythm and recent performance, crude oil is still operating in an irregular state. It is completely driven by the news flow, which means there is still a very high risk of unpredictable variables in short-term moves.
However, yesterday’s price action closed with a large bearish candle, almost giving back the rebound space from the previous two weeks. Such a strong retracement has also changed the technical trend. On the upside today, you can watch the strong resistance zone of 82.7-83.3; during the same period, 81.8-82 will also provide some suppression. On the downside, first watch the contention around 80. Once it breaks, it may tear open the downtrend; then you can further watch the contention around 78.
In terms of operations, the main intraday line for US crude oil is that the market’s digestion of news related to the situation between the US and Iran will likely lead to weak-to-sideways consolidation. Aggressive traders can try another short around 81.2-81.5 on the rebound; more conservative traders should wait to short again around 81.8-82.0. On the downside, focus on the contention around 80. Price may dip slightly below (piercing), but currently market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, so there will be no consideration for participating in short longs at this time.
The above is my personal opinion, for reference only!#黄金