$BTR$CRM The market’s mainstream focus is on the August 26 earnings report, with hopes that Agentforce will become the next growth engine and push the stock price to break above the previous high. But I think this earnings report is very likely to mark a turning point of “good news already priced in,” with the risk of a near-term pullback in CRM being seriously underestimated. My contrarian view rests on three points: First, the options market’s implied volatility skew shows that the put/call ratio has not declined as the stock price has risen. Instead, ahead of the earnings report it climbed to an intra-year high, suggesting that “smart money” is buying protective puts rather than chasing upside. Second, Salesforce’s historical precedent—over the past four earnings reports, after each one the stock has, on average, fallen by 4.2% whether results beat expectations or not. That’s because the market has already priced in the AI narrative, while the actual revenue growth rate (the market expects around 9%) is far below the software sector average of 15%. Third, in the macro backdrop, today’s Nvidia earnings and the inflation data are released on the same day. If NVDA triggers broad tech-sector selling pressure due to a fifth consecutive quarter of declines, CRM—a high-beta SaaS name—would likely be hit first. And the current weakness in BTC at $79,091 also reflects a contraction in risk appetite. I believe growth in Agentforce contract value will be overstated, but the conversion cycle is long and deployment costs are high, so it may not be able to offset valuation pressure in the short term. CRM’s current price already discounts growth over the next two years, and a 5–8% pullback after the earnings is a highly probable scenario. What do you think? Feel free to share different opinions and discuss in the comments section.