To be honest, this isn’t validation—it’s the trigger speaking. When that bearish candle of $TRUMP drops, on the four-hour timeframe it breaks through directly. While I was watching the board, all I could think was—acceleration phase is here. Many people are still fantasizing about a rebound, but the volume structure is right there: when it falls, volume expands; when it bounces, volume contracts. I’ve seen this formation too many times. After this, there’s likely still follow-through selling.
Let’s look at this rally: from the low it came up indeed looks fierce, but the problem is it moved too fast—there hasn’t been enough hand-changing in the chips. Now the price has returned to the middle-lower part of the initial rally zone. Support below is either a psychological level or a prior area of dense trading, but that area is still some distance away from where we are now.
In plain terms, this middle “gap” is the most comfortable gliding zone for the bears. I don’t like chasing, but I definitely don’t like catching falling knives against the trend. The signals I see on the screen are very clear: the rebound strength is getting weaker each time; highs keep stepping down and lows keep getting refreshed. This is a classic descending channel structure. How do you calculate the risk-reward ratio? On the upside, overhead pressure stacks up layer by layer; on the downside, the room to move is relatively open. That kind of asymmetry—rational people know which side to stand on.
Someone might ask: with how much it has fallen, won’t it be oversold? My answer is: it can become even more oversold, especially in products where sentiment dominates. When we do analysis, don’t always think about bottom-picking or top-calling. Just follow the structure. As long as the structure hasn’t broken down, my judgment remains bearish—until we see a signal of a selling climax with a volume expansion that stabilizes the fall; otherwise, I won’t easily change my stance.
Gaze at the broadness of the mountains; observe the subtle movements of the market.
Travel with Uncle Xiong and witness the gains and losses of the heavens and the earth.
#TRUMP
Click below to trade 👇
Let’s look at this rally: from the low it came up indeed looks fierce, but the problem is it moved too fast—there hasn’t been enough hand-changing in the chips. Now the price has returned to the middle-lower part of the initial rally zone. Support below is either a psychological level or a prior area of dense trading, but that area is still some distance away from where we are now.
In plain terms, this middle “gap” is the most comfortable gliding zone for the bears. I don’t like chasing, but I definitely don’t like catching falling knives against the trend. The signals I see on the screen are very clear: the rebound strength is getting weaker each time; highs keep stepping down and lows keep getting refreshed. This is a classic descending channel structure. How do you calculate the risk-reward ratio? On the upside, overhead pressure stacks up layer by layer; on the downside, the room to move is relatively open. That kind of asymmetry—rational people know which side to stand on.
Someone might ask: with how much it has fallen, won’t it be oversold? My answer is: it can become even more oversold, especially in products where sentiment dominates. When we do analysis, don’t always think about bottom-picking or top-calling. Just follow the structure. As long as the structure hasn’t broken down, my judgment remains bearish—until we see a signal of a selling climax with a volume expansion that stabilizes the fall; otherwise, I won’t easily change my stance.
Gaze at the broadness of the mountains; observe the subtle movements of the market.
Travel with Uncle Xiong and witness the gains and losses of the heavens and the earth.
#TRUMP
Click below to trade 👇