Treasuries, stocks, and the US dollar—starting now, whenever things blow up, it’s not a black swan.
What is this U.S. Treasury TGA account that Bessent is using for? It’s the U.S. Treasury’s revenue.
What concept is this account?
In a year, it can earn only $4.5 trillion, and it needs to spend $6.5 trillion.
But ordinary people eating their horses and feeding the stable need money on the books—so they lay by around $1 trillion.
This is a loss-making account, not a money-making one.
Then what role does it play?
Bessent said that he’ll buy $4 billion in long-end yield Treasuries every month, right? This $1 trillion can cover 250 months—over 20 years.
So what is there to be afraid of?
It’s like when playing mahjong and an accountant gets fed up—opens the safe and says: I’ve got $1 trillion in here; whoever can win and take it away today, let’s see.
That certainly makes everyone at the mahjong table feel at ease, but the boss, the cashier, and the employees all start wondering: if this keeps going, what will happen to our payments for goods, wages, advertising expenses, and project payments?
That’s tomorrow’s problem.
So at this kind of “one-second-a-time” level— the Fed, the Treasury, Wall Street… each one is smoother than the last.
They can always find an answer in a direction you didn’t expect, an answer that makes you feel good at the time, and they can always create more trouble.
What can you think? You can only watch the juggling act.
Just look at them walking a tightrope on the 30th floor, holding a basket of eggs, flipping—while flipping, composing poetry for you, and while reciting that poetry, doing micro-sculpting on a grain of millet.
You can only say, they’re insanely good—when are they going to fall?
They could fall any time!
So Treasuries, stocks, and the US dollar—starting now, whenever things blow up, it’s not a black swan.
$QQQ
What is this U.S. Treasury TGA account that Bessent is using for? It’s the U.S. Treasury’s revenue.
What concept is this account?
In a year, it can earn only $4.5 trillion, and it needs to spend $6.5 trillion.
But ordinary people eating their horses and feeding the stable need money on the books—so they lay by around $1 trillion.
This is a loss-making account, not a money-making one.
Then what role does it play?
Bessent said that he’ll buy $4 billion in long-end yield Treasuries every month, right? This $1 trillion can cover 250 months—over 20 years.
So what is there to be afraid of?
It’s like when playing mahjong and an accountant gets fed up—opens the safe and says: I’ve got $1 trillion in here; whoever can win and take it away today, let’s see.
That certainly makes everyone at the mahjong table feel at ease, but the boss, the cashier, and the employees all start wondering: if this keeps going, what will happen to our payments for goods, wages, advertising expenses, and project payments?
That’s tomorrow’s problem.
So at this kind of “one-second-a-time” level— the Fed, the Treasury, Wall Street… each one is smoother than the last.
They can always find an answer in a direction you didn’t expect, an answer that makes you feel good at the time, and they can always create more trouble.
What can you think? You can only watch the juggling act.
Just look at them walking a tightrope on the 30th floor, holding a basket of eggs, flipping—while flipping, composing poetry for you, and while reciting that poetry, doing micro-sculpting on a grain of millet.
You can only say, they’re insanely good—when are they going to fall?
They could fall any time!
So Treasuries, stocks, and the US dollar—starting now, whenever things blow up, it’s not a black swan.
$QQQ
