Recently, Hyperliquid officially announced support for HIP-4, which brings native prediction markets to Hyperliquid. The difference is that the contracts run directly in the HyperCore module of Hyperliquid L1, and are then applied or called by the front end through environments like HyperEVM, rather than being an independent protocol on another public chain like Polymarket.
Hyperliquid launches HIP-4: officially integrating prediction markets into the L1 upgrade.
Hyperliquid officially announced HIP-4 recently, stating that its core matching layer HyperCore will support Outcome Trading. This means that Hyperliquid is no longer just a Perp DEX, but has incorporated prediction markets into its native derivatives framework.
The official points out that Outcomes is a fully collateralized contract type that settles within a fixed interval, which can be used for predicting markets and derivatives similar to options. This mechanism is still in the testing network phase, and the regulated market based on objective settlement sources will be deployed after technical development is completed. The regulated market will be priced in USDH. It will gradually move towards permissionless once user feedback matures.
What is HIP-4 doing?
Expanding Hyperliquid from only doing perpetual contracts to being a derivative platform that can natively handle prediction markets. The core of HIP-4 is not just to open a few new markets but to add a set of outcome contracts as a primitive. These contracts are specifically used to trade event outcomes, such as election results, sports events, or whether specific conditions are met before a certain point in time (e.g., whether BTC breaks a specific price).
The Outcomes defined by the official possess three key characteristics:
Non-linearity: It is no longer just a linear long-short return, but a result-oriented payoff structure.
Dated / Expiring: Unlike perpetual contracts, each outcome market has a clear event end time.
No leverage, no liquidations: It adopts 100% collateral and a one-time independent margin, with no liquidation or cascading liquidation risks.
Hyperliquid officially emphasizes that Outcome Trading can be used in conjunction with existing margins and future HyperEVM.
Asians do not realize how difficult it is to open contracts in Europe and the United States. Why does Vida have high hopes for Hyperliquid?
"Let me say something that cannot be said on Twitter: I believe Hyperliquid still has infinite potential and may be the only Perp DEX that can emerge in the future, which is why Binance sees it as its most important competitor," said Vida, the founder of Equation News, recently explaining why he continues to hold a bullish view on Hyperliquid in an almost unrelenting tone.
He pointed out that the key is not faster matching or lower fees, but that it is providing decentralized, unregulated perpetual contracts to a group of traditional CEX users who would never dare to touch it, with almost zero friction: the demand for perpetual contracts in compliant regions. He believes that as HIP-3 goes live and more assets can be packaged into perpetual contracts without permission, Hyperliquid will resemble an infrastructure for derivative markets, directly absorbing demand for speculation, hedging, and gambling.
Observing data from Cloudflare Radar that monitors Hyperliquid's front-end API, it is found that a large number of Hyperliquid users are actually Americans, Europeans, and Japanese, who theoretically cannot use perpetual contracts.
As for why other Perp DEXs are not optimistic, first-mover advantage is everything. In the minds of traders in Europe and the United States, Hyperliquid's status is almost equivalent to that of Binance. Perp DEX has no ground promotion, no advertising, relying entirely on word of mouth among traders. On the other hand, offshore users have no migration motivation. If one is Chinese, they can use Binance, OKX, Bybit; why would they run to Aster or Lighter to open positions?
He pointed out that Westerners are different. In the United States, Europe, and Japan, it is challenging to open an account on a CEX that can trade perpetual contracts. His American friend, even though he registered a BVI company overseas, many CEXs directly refuse to let him open an account as long as he is an American citizen and a director. Any involvement with American nationality is an absolute red line for CEXs. There are also Japanese and British friends who have to get Thai driver's licenses, Palau IDs, and Palau addresses to keep their Binance / Bybit accounts, so Hyperliquid indeed solves real problems.
This article also introduces the prediction market by Hyperliquid! What is HIP-4? It first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.