Good morning. Today is August 26. Overnight, BTC has once again given the market a lesson—down 0.8% over the past 24 hours. Current price is $78,364. After topping at $81,272, it quickly pulled back. The drop may not look big, but what is more alarming than the decline itself is that frightening RSI at the daily level.

Market overview

Current price 78,364, down 0.8%. Volatility between the high and low exceeds $4,000—bulls and bears are fighting it out.

Technical analysis: short-term momentum has weakened; the long-term trend is still strong

First look at the short term: on the 1-hour chart, the RSI has already fallen to 38.72 and is about to enter the oversold zone. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover and the downward acceleration suggests that spot buying pressure has temporarily faded. The earlier bullish push that surged yesterday is now retreating. More importantly, the price has fallen below the 1-hour MA20 (79197) and MA50 (78774). Below, the lower Bollinger band at 77917 is today’s first line of defense; if it breaks, then the next thing to watch is support at the 8-hour level. However, the 4-hour chart is still holding up: the RSI is around 56. Even though the MACD is also showing a bearish crossover, the moving averages remain in a bullish alignment (MA20>MA50), indicating that the medium-term uptrend has not been broken. This pullback looks more like a shakeout than a trend change. As for the daily chart: the RSI has surged to 87.34—this value is already in an extremely overbought zone. Historically, after this kind of signal appears, a fairly meaningful technical correction is likely in the short term. The upper Bollinger band at 81869 is resistance, the lower band at 56000 is far away and hard to imagine, and the gap in between represents future volatility space.

Liquidity conditions: the long side is starting to retreat

The funding rate is still positive (0.0073%), which means longs are still paying, but the fee has already become very low—suggesting that the market’s enthusiasm for chasing longs has noticeably cooled. The large-holder long/short ratio has slipped from its previous high to 1.089, while the large-holder long/short holdings ratio is as high as 2.256—indicating that although large players are still net long on paper, they are starting to hesitate in terms of directional commitment. On the active buy/sell volume, bids are only slightly dominant (2505 vs 2400). Such a weak bid, in the context of daily being overbought, is basically equivalent to none. The retail long/short ratio is 1.0, suggesting that ordinary investors are watching and no one wants to make the first move. Open interest is 106911 BTC; high-level consolidation without falling open interest means that if a directional choice emerges in the future, the liquidation scale could be quite substantial.

Market sentiment: greed is cooling, but there’s still no panic

The Fear & Greed Index is 65, placing it in the greed zone, and it has declined from the extreme greed of a few days ago. Retail investors’ trading habit is: the higher the price, the more excited they get—but the current data shows everyone is hesitating about whether to take profits. This kind of hesitation is often the buildup before a major move.

What to watch today

Overall direction: I’m a bit cautious. The daily RSI is overbought, and the short-term trend is weakening. Today is likely to be a choppy market leaning bearish, seeking support. For specific actions: if you’re a short-term trader, don’t rush to bottom-fish. Try with a light position in the 78,300–77,900 area. If it breaks below 77,500, cut losses. If it rebounds into the 79,500–80,000 range, reduce positions in batches. If you’re a long-term holder, don’t panic. The 4-hour uptrend arrangement is still in place, and pullbacks are an opportunity to get on board—but don’t go all-in at once; keep some “bullets” for even lower support levels (for example, around 76,000). In one sentence: safety first, profits second.

What do you think? Let’s chat in the comments.

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