Asian session just woke up to easing geopolitics and a collapse in oil prices—this pace is a bit too fast.
WTI was directly hammered down more than 4% to 81; Brent slipped below 85. Russian media reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached consensus on pausing-fire provisions, which also includes freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the mines are all cleared—if anyone lays mines again, they’ll be taken out. On the inventory front, API crude oil +4.2 million, gasoline -3.2 million—shorts took the opportunity to harvest.
The macro picture isn’t any calmer: Canada starting September 8 imposes counter-tariffs of 15%-50% on $20 billion of U.S. goods, so the trade war is on. The Fed also hinted that if inflation doesn’t fall, it will raise rates “as soon as possible.” The bond market feels a bit tense. But gold is holding firm, climbing for four straight days, closing at 4657 and touching 4700 intraday, with ETFs pulling in 28 tons last week.
Approach: In the Asian session, first take a bite of the easing-geopolitics tailwind, but oil, tariffs, and interest rates are all pressing at the same time—don’t chase too aggressively. First look for stabilization, then wait for a reversal, and keep position sizing with more flexibility.
#原油 #黄金 #地缘 #宏观 #BTC
NFA DYOR
WTI was directly hammered down more than 4% to 81; Brent slipped below 85. Russian media reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached consensus on pausing-fire provisions, which also includes freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the mines are all cleared—if anyone lays mines again, they’ll be taken out. On the inventory front, API crude oil +4.2 million, gasoline -3.2 million—shorts took the opportunity to harvest.
The macro picture isn’t any calmer: Canada starting September 8 imposes counter-tariffs of 15%-50% on $20 billion of U.S. goods, so the trade war is on. The Fed also hinted that if inflation doesn’t fall, it will raise rates “as soon as possible.” The bond market feels a bit tense. But gold is holding firm, climbing for four straight days, closing at 4657 and touching 4700 intraday, with ETFs pulling in 28 tons last week.
Approach: In the Asian session, first take a bite of the easing-geopolitics tailwind, but oil, tariffs, and interest rates are all pressing at the same time—don’t chase too aggressively. First look for stabilization, then wait for a reversal, and keep position sizing with more flexibility.
#原油 #黄金 #地缘 #宏观 #BTC
NFA DYOR