Damn it, this TAC contract price surged up 57% in a single day—open interest followed and also piled up by 57%. The price-and-open-interest rising together forms a textbook bullish pattern—hold on before rushing in. I dug through the entire trade details and found a big problem.
“Price and open interest rising together” sounds fierce, but in the active buying order book, the buy side doesn’t even account for half—about 60% is actually hitting the market with sell orders. The big players’ positioning is also pressing down on the shorts; longs are left with only 47%.
It’s rising in price, and leverage is being lifted—where’s the money? The money is being moved out.
There’s another thing right here—funding rate has already dropped below the 8-period average. The basis is also shrinking, and the thickness of the spot order book’s sell side is weighing down on the buy side. It just set a historical low three days ago, and then—turnaround—it jumped over two times. This move is leverage propping itself up; if nobody is stepping in to buy, then it’s just hard support at high levels.
Those who keep believing “a暴拉 means it’s strong” continue going long. I’m short from this position, and the rebound propped up by leverage will have to be paid back sooner or later. The day when active buy orders genuinely reclaim and hold above 50%, and the funding rate starts burning again—that’s when real money is entering. When that day comes, I’ll flip long again. #tac $TAC
“Price and open interest rising together” sounds fierce, but in the active buying order book, the buy side doesn’t even account for half—about 60% is actually hitting the market with sell orders. The big players’ positioning is also pressing down on the shorts; longs are left with only 47%.
It’s rising in price, and leverage is being lifted—where’s the money? The money is being moved out.
There’s another thing right here—funding rate has already dropped below the 8-period average. The basis is also shrinking, and the thickness of the spot order book’s sell side is weighing down on the buy side. It just set a historical low three days ago, and then—turnaround—it jumped over two times. This move is leverage propping itself up; if nobody is stepping in to buy, then it’s just hard support at high levels.
Those who keep believing “a暴拉 means it’s strong” continue going long. I’m short from this position, and the rebound propped up by leverage will have to be paid back sooner or later. The day when active buy orders genuinely reclaim and hold above 50%, and the funding rate starts burning again—that’s when real money is entering. When that day comes, I’ll flip long again. #tac $TAC
