The gold price’s Bollinger Bands for the past hour have already risen above the upper band at 4669. After spiking higher, it has pulled back slightly. The moving averages are overall trending upward, indicating a pattern of range-bound rebound. The previous high at 4696 is a strong resistance level in the short term.
Short-term supports below: 4660, 4642
Short-term resistances above: 4685, 4690, 4696
The US will soon release the July core PCE price index, which is a key inflation metric closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
If the PCE data cools, it will further reduce expectations for rate hikes, which would be supportive of gold prices continuing to surge higher.
If inflation data comes in higher than expected, it will reinforce hawkish expectations again, and gold is likely to face pressure and pull back. As the current data has not been released yet, the market is pricing it in early; positioning is relatively cautious, volatility will increase, and you should not go heavy on positions.
Short-term outlook:
If it pulls back and stabilizes around 4660, you can consider a small long position, with targets at 4685–4690. If it holds above 4697, upside room for the rebound will open further.
If the rebound pushes into the 4690–4696 area near the prior highs and then meets resistance and falls back, you can try a short position. Place your defense/stop above 4700, and look back toward the 4660–4642 range.
As long as it does not break down below the 4642 Bollinger middle band, the short-term rebound is likely to continue. If there is a valid breakdown below 4642, the rebound structure will be damaged and the price action will likely return to a downward range-bound move.#黄金
Short-term supports below: 4660, 4642
Short-term resistances above: 4685, 4690, 4696
The US will soon release the July core PCE price index, which is a key inflation metric closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
If the PCE data cools, it will further reduce expectations for rate hikes, which would be supportive of gold prices continuing to surge higher.
If inflation data comes in higher than expected, it will reinforce hawkish expectations again, and gold is likely to face pressure and pull back. As the current data has not been released yet, the market is pricing it in early; positioning is relatively cautious, volatility will increase, and you should not go heavy on positions.
Short-term outlook:
If it pulls back and stabilizes around 4660, you can consider a small long position, with targets at 4685–4690. If it holds above 4697, upside room for the rebound will open further.
If the rebound pushes into the 4690–4696 area near the prior highs and then meets resistance and falls back, you can try a short position. Place your defense/stop above 4700, and look back toward the 4660–4642 range.
As long as it does not break down below the 4642 Bollinger middle band, the short-term rebound is likely to continue. If there is a valid breakdown below 4642, the rebound structure will be damaged and the price action will likely return to a downward range-bound move.#黄金
