8.26 Gold Intraday Playbook: Stay in Cash Until Signals Appear; Don’t Chase at 4660; Build Within the Range Before the PCE
Good morning. Last night, gold surged to 4697 but couldn’t hold. After it dropped, it found a bottom at 4605. This morning, it’s hovering back around 4669. The bigger trend is still bullish, but the short-term momentum is weak—U.S. Treasuries broke through $4 trillion, and the Treasury is pushing to extend the long end, which provides support for gold; with the easing of Hormuz Strait navigation, some haven money has pulled back. Tonight at 20:30, the key Core PCE (YoY forecast 3.3%, MoM 0.2%) is the main event for today. Before the data comes out, nobody dares to take a one-way bet. On top of that, on Friday’s first appearance at Jackson Hole will add another layer of uncertainty, so during the day it’s basically a pre-event washout.
Looking one hour ahead, price is stuck in a tight range of 4650–4665. 4660–4680 is the overhead pressure from prior heavy trading; if it climbs to that area, it’s likely to run into sell orders. Below, 4640–4630 is where the move would be supported on a rebound. If that breaks, then expect 4610–4600 (yesterday’s low plus the strength line). On the 4-hour chart, the MACD green histogram is shrinking and RSI has reverted to 50—bulls aren’t dead, just taking a breather. In short: don’t chase longs above 4660; don’t chase shorts above 4600. Today is a 4610–4680 box, with the midline at 4650.
Plan: If it falls back to 4640–4645 and shows signs of stabilizing, go long; or if it rises to 4675–4680 and can’t move higher, look for shorts. Before 8:15 tonight, close any positions and wait for the PCE.
The above is my personal opinion (with cilantro), and it does not constitute any investment advice.
#外汇黄金 #黄金 $XAU
Good morning. Last night, gold surged to 4697 but couldn’t hold. After it dropped, it found a bottom at 4605. This morning, it’s hovering back around 4669. The bigger trend is still bullish, but the short-term momentum is weak—U.S. Treasuries broke through $4 trillion, and the Treasury is pushing to extend the long end, which provides support for gold; with the easing of Hormuz Strait navigation, some haven money has pulled back. Tonight at 20:30, the key Core PCE (YoY forecast 3.3%, MoM 0.2%) is the main event for today. Before the data comes out, nobody dares to take a one-way bet. On top of that, on Friday’s first appearance at Jackson Hole will add another layer of uncertainty, so during the day it’s basically a pre-event washout.
Looking one hour ahead, price is stuck in a tight range of 4650–4665. 4660–4680 is the overhead pressure from prior heavy trading; if it climbs to that area, it’s likely to run into sell orders. Below, 4640–4630 is where the move would be supported on a rebound. If that breaks, then expect 4610–4600 (yesterday’s low plus the strength line). On the 4-hour chart, the MACD green histogram is shrinking and RSI has reverted to 50—bulls aren’t dead, just taking a breather. In short: don’t chase longs above 4660; don’t chase shorts above 4600. Today is a 4610–4680 box, with the midline at 4650.
Plan: If it falls back to 4640–4645 and shows signs of stabilizing, go long; or if it rises to 4675–4680 and can’t move higher, look for shorts. Before 8:15 tonight, close any positions and wait for the PCE.
The above is my personal opinion (with cilantro), and it does not constitute any investment advice.
#外汇黄金 #黄金 $XAU
