ONG Yesterday played with nerves again: over the past 24 hours it rose 21%, futures were up 33% in a day. Open interest surged 27% as well, pushing into the long side quadrant—looks like a second startup. But the spot market’s active buy/sell ratio is now down to just 0.206: Taker buy volume is 4,918 while sell volume is 23,838. Behind every buy order that enters the market, there are nearly 5 sell orders ready to smash it. Prices are up, but the bid is hollow.
After spiking to 0.1083, it immediately gave back 9% within an hour. In the next 15 minutes, both moving average lines were fully broken through, and the price is still 5.5% away from the 20-line. Open interest increased 27% during the day, but in the last 7 hours it actually fell 12%—the new longs just entered and got buried. This is exactly the fuel for a dive. Spot is still net inflow by 7.5 million over the past 3 hours, but the incoming money can’t hold up the price, which shows the sell pressure is more ferocious than the capital inflow.
I don’t believe this rebound can turn things around. The prior high at 0.16 is still capping it, with trapped longs overhead. 0.105–0.108 is where short-sellers can get in—the first target is 0.09, and if that breaks, look at 0.075. Spot is voting with its feet; the contracts are just staging lively back-and-forth.
There’s only one reversal condition: the spot Taker buy/sell ratio climbs back above 1, and the price reclaims 0.105 with a 1-hour shift to bullish. Only then would it mean real buying has arrived, and shorts should stop-loss and admit the mistake.
#ong $ONG
After spiking to 0.1083, it immediately gave back 9% within an hour. In the next 15 minutes, both moving average lines were fully broken through, and the price is still 5.5% away from the 20-line. Open interest increased 27% during the day, but in the last 7 hours it actually fell 12%—the new longs just entered and got buried. This is exactly the fuel for a dive. Spot is still net inflow by 7.5 million over the past 3 hours, but the incoming money can’t hold up the price, which shows the sell pressure is more ferocious than the capital inflow.
I don’t believe this rebound can turn things around. The prior high at 0.16 is still capping it, with trapped longs overhead. 0.105–0.108 is where short-sellers can get in—the first target is 0.09, and if that breaks, look at 0.075. Spot is voting with its feet; the contracts are just staging lively back-and-forth.
There’s only one reversal condition: the spot Taker buy/sell ratio climbs back above 1, and the price reclaims 0.105 with a 1-hour shift to bullish. Only then would it mean real buying has arrived, and shorts should stop-loss and admit the mistake.
#ong $ONG
