In my last post I said to wait for BZ to stabilize after it seems to have found support—turns out it never stabilized. Instead, the moving averages got fully broken—price is hovering right on the 85.03 level from today’s low, down 5.8% over the last 24 hours. Even stranger: on the derivatives side, buyers quietly came out. Active trades are 53.9% buys, and the funding rate is still negative—shorts are the ones paying. By all logic, it should bounce. But it didn’t. It drilled into new lows.
The secret is in the order book and the structure of the chips. In the top 20 levels of the spot order book, buy demand is only 87% of the sell side. Above, there are sell orders at 12763 waiting to catch the bottom-picking bids. In the whale positions, longs are down to just 26.85%—seven tenths are on the short side. The buy pressure isn’t there to push the price up; it’s there to catch falling knives.
Negative funding + fresh lows doesn’t signal a short squeeze coming—it’s showing spot sell pressure is in control. Over the past four hours: 5 bearish candles and 1 bullish. Even a rebound can’t reach 86.88 (MA20). This isn’t a mere pullback; it’s a trend.
So I’m bearish on BZ. If 85.03 breaks and there’s nothing to catch it, no footings beneath, then on a bounce toward 86.5–87 I’ll enter shorts, with a stop-loss at 87.7 above. What signals a reversal? A 4-hour close back above 87.6 (MA50), or the funding rate turning positive and open interest rising again—then it means shorts are covering, and the script changes. Until then, the trend stands with the bears. #bz $BZ
The secret is in the order book and the structure of the chips. In the top 20 levels of the spot order book, buy demand is only 87% of the sell side. Above, there are sell orders at 12763 waiting to catch the bottom-picking bids. In the whale positions, longs are down to just 26.85%—seven tenths are on the short side. The buy pressure isn’t there to push the price up; it’s there to catch falling knives.
Negative funding + fresh lows doesn’t signal a short squeeze coming—it’s showing spot sell pressure is in control. Over the past four hours: 5 bearish candles and 1 bullish. Even a rebound can’t reach 86.88 (MA20). This isn’t a mere pullback; it’s a trend.
So I’m bearish on BZ. If 85.03 breaks and there’s nothing to catch it, no footings beneath, then on a bounce toward 86.5–87 I’ll enter shorts, with a stop-loss at 87.7 above. What signals a reversal? A 4-hour close back above 87.6 (MA50), or the funding rate turning positive and open interest rising again—then it means shorts are covering, and the script changes. Until then, the trend stands with the bears. #bz $BZ
