Prediction from Liquid Capital founder, Yi Lihua, has drawn attention because he is not merely looking at the continuation of the bull market, but also estimating that BTC and ETH could generate returns of more than 3x in this cycle, with the probability of ETH rising higher than Bitcoin. The statement was delivered on August 24 after he saw a market recovery that he assessed as stronger than expected.
However, the more interesting perspective is not whether the 3x figure will truly be reached.
The question is: why could ETH outperform BTC when new institutions have just returned to aggressively buying crypto assets?
Institutional capital begins to widen
Week 17–21 August provides important clues. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF received about US$1.92 billion, while the Ethereum ETF gained about US$697 million. Combined, the two totaled about US$2.6 billion, making it one of the strongest weeks of inflows since October 2025.
Bitcoin itself briefly reached about US$79,455, while ETH is back above US$2,400.
What changes is the direction of capital.
The market is no longer just buying Bitcoin as the main asset. Exposure is starting to expand into Ethereum and other digital assets. If that trend continues, ETH has room to experience a more aggressive catch-up rally.
Why is the ETH thesis compelling?
Ethereum has catalysts different from Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin is mainly positioned as a digital monetary asset, Ethereum has an additional thesis: on-chain financial infrastructure.
Stablecoins, asset tokenization, DeFi, and blockchain-based applications all require network infrastructure. Yi Lihua himself places growth in stablecoin-based on-chain finance as one of the key opportunities in this bullish cycle. He also sees the combination of AI + Crypto as a source of new demand.
This creates two different growth engines:
BTC → scarcity + institutions + liquidity
ETH → institutions + on-chain activity + stablecoins + tokenization
If institutional capital flows become even broader, ETH could benefit from both sides.
But “3x” isn’t a target that’s automatically reached
This is where investors must distinguish between a bullish thesis and price certainty.
ETFs do show new demand, but much of last week’s AUM increase also came from price appreciation of assets already held, not just new money. Out of the roughly US$23 billion combined AUM increase of the BTC and ETH ETFs, only about US$2.6 billion came from net inflows.
This means momentum is strong, but the market still needs new, sustainable demand to maintain the rally.
Conclusion
Yi Lihua’s thesis is compelling not because of the 3x figure, but because he sees the possibility of a phase shift in the crypto market.
Bitcoin may be the entry point for institutional capital. But if liquidity later moves deeper toward on-chain economic infrastructure, ETH could become one of the biggest beneficiaries.
BTC may lead the rally. But in the next phase, the more interesting question is whether ETH can catch up—and ultimately outperform—Bitcoin in terms of percentage gains.
To validate the thesis, three indicators are worth watching: ETH ETF flows, network activity/stablecoins, and the ETH/BTC ratio.