【Crossing the 80k threshold: passing it and not passing it are two different things】
BTC has broken 80,000.
Honestly, my first reaction wasn’t excitement—it was alertness. In 2021, I saw too many “finally broke through” scripts. During the breakout, the chat was full of cheers. The next day, it opened lower and buried people. But this time is a bit different—look at the OI and the funding rates: they’re both trending down. This isn’t the bulls pulling up; it’s the bears actively closing positions. The difference between the two is huge.
Where does the bulls’ confidence come from? The 76,000 level has been defended for about a week. Volume is lower but price doesn’t break. That suggests support below is still there. In terms of the daily chart structure, the pullback from 82,000 looks more like a flag/flag-pattern consolidation in structure. The 22% weekly gain is there, now digesting profit-taking rather than distributing.
The bears aren’t fully dead either. From 82,000 to 85,000, they’ve built up a substantial amount of sell pressure. A slight increase in trading volume could trigger a chain reaction. If 76,000 breaks, then we’ll need to reassess what this rebound is really about.
So what does this mean in practice?
Put simply, whether 80,000 breaks or not is just a psychological checkpoint. The real question underneath is: can this uptrend attract new money? If it’s only existing capital trading around, then you sell today and I buy tomorrow—no matter how high the mood is, it’s still self-entertainment. A true bull market requires new capital to rush in. Right now, it doesn’t seem clear yet—FNG is at 74, but it hasn’t blown past the top. That means we’re not at the stage where retail investors rush in to take the bag.
So how should we look at what comes next?
I tend to think the bulls have a slightly higher chance, and the reason is simple: the bears have been badly wounded. With OI cut so much, organizing an effective attack again in the short term takes time. But this is just a bias, not a bet. When the market truly chooses a direction, it will always come with a big increase in trading volume. This kind of low-volume consolidation is basically waiting for that signal.
What’s everyone’s mindset? Regret not getting on this train—do you still feel itchy now that it’s moved?
BTC has broken 80,000.
Honestly, my first reaction wasn’t excitement—it was alertness. In 2021, I saw too many “finally broke through” scripts. During the breakout, the chat was full of cheers. The next day, it opened lower and buried people. But this time is a bit different—look at the OI and the funding rates: they’re both trending down. This isn’t the bulls pulling up; it’s the bears actively closing positions. The difference between the two is huge.
Where does the bulls’ confidence come from? The 76,000 level has been defended for about a week. Volume is lower but price doesn’t break. That suggests support below is still there. In terms of the daily chart structure, the pullback from 82,000 looks more like a flag/flag-pattern consolidation in structure. The 22% weekly gain is there, now digesting profit-taking rather than distributing.
The bears aren’t fully dead either. From 82,000 to 85,000, they’ve built up a substantial amount of sell pressure. A slight increase in trading volume could trigger a chain reaction. If 76,000 breaks, then we’ll need to reassess what this rebound is really about.
So what does this mean in practice?
Put simply, whether 80,000 breaks or not is just a psychological checkpoint. The real question underneath is: can this uptrend attract new money? If it’s only existing capital trading around, then you sell today and I buy tomorrow—no matter how high the mood is, it’s still self-entertainment. A true bull market requires new capital to rush in. Right now, it doesn’t seem clear yet—FNG is at 74, but it hasn’t blown past the top. That means we’re not at the stage where retail investors rush in to take the bag.
So how should we look at what comes next?
I tend to think the bulls have a slightly higher chance, and the reason is simple: the bears have been badly wounded. With OI cut so much, organizing an effective attack again in the short term takes time. But this is just a bias, not a bet. When the market truly chooses a direction, it will always come with a big increase in trading volume. This kind of low-volume consolidation is basically waiting for that signal.
What’s everyone’s mindset? Regret not getting on this train—do you still feel itchy now that it’s moved?