139.76 got pressed all day; SPCX is now hovering above the moving average at 138.2. The price hasn’t moved much, but the ledger has moved first: contract open interest added 7.49% in a day, from 212 million to 228 million. In the past few posts, I kept saying to stay on the sidelines and not touch longs—but this time I’m changing my tone: bullish.
What leads me to this conclusion isn’t the price, it’s positioning. Over the past 7 hours, total open interest has only dipped slightly, yet the whale long position ratio has actually risen by 6.37% against the trend. With large-holder accounts making up 65% on the long side. Retail positions are shrinking while whales are adding—chips are concentrating into stronger hands. This doesn’t look like distribution; it looks like building a position.
Aggressive buy volume makes up 53.3%, and trading volume expanded 14.52% over the past seven hours. In eight rounds of fee-rate sampling, not a single round was positive—no entry fee was paid for the longs. Uncrowded long orders are the kind that still have room to push higher. The only blemish is on the spot side: the net inflow from large orders that actually settles is 0. Spot hasn’t kept up, and the prior high keeps being topped but not broken.
So I’m going long this trade—enter around 138. Near 139.76, the previous high breaking will serve as confirmation of the breakout. Conversely, if price drops back below the MA50 around 137.1, open interest turns down and contracts, and the whales simultaneously unwind their longs—then this batch of positions is a bull trap, and my view flips on the spot. #spcx $SPCX
What leads me to this conclusion isn’t the price, it’s positioning. Over the past 7 hours, total open interest has only dipped slightly, yet the whale long position ratio has actually risen by 6.37% against the trend. With large-holder accounts making up 65% on the long side. Retail positions are shrinking while whales are adding—chips are concentrating into stronger hands. This doesn’t look like distribution; it looks like building a position.
Aggressive buy volume makes up 53.3%, and trading volume expanded 14.52% over the past seven hours. In eight rounds of fee-rate sampling, not a single round was positive—no entry fee was paid for the longs. Uncrowded long orders are the kind that still have room to push higher. The only blemish is on the spot side: the net inflow from large orders that actually settles is 0. Spot hasn’t kept up, and the prior high keeps being topped but not broken.
So I’m going long this trade—enter around 138. Near 139.76, the previous high breaking will serve as confirmation of the breakout. Conversely, if price drops back below the MA50 around 137.1, open interest turns down and contracts, and the whales simultaneously unwind their longs—then this batch of positions is a bull trap, and my view flips on the spot. #spcx $SPCX
