If you ask me to judge the remaining months of the crypto market in 2026 right now, my view is actually quite simple:
I’m bullish, but I won’t treat the next few months as a straight-line rise.
The earlier part of this year’s rally already shook the market badly.
ETFs have seen sustained outflows, the macro environment keeps changing, BTC has been adjusting all the way down from its highs, and the market has even started re-discussing:
“Has the four-year cycle already stopped working?”
But the situation is now changing.
$BTC Regaining $80K, August has already gained about 28%, and this rally isn’t driven by a single factor. Weakness in the dollar, liquidity expectations from the Treasury repo program, renewed inflows into ETFs, and the squeeze of a large amount of prior short sellers have all jointly pushed this round of gains.
So my view for the rest of this year is:
Late August–September: volatile consolidation
The problem is that it’s rising too fast now, and I actually don’t want BTC to keep pumping wildly.
Can $80K hold as support → can ETF inflows continue → can ETH keep up
These three things determine the next phase.
If BTC can turn $80K into support, I would think this rally has entered a true trend phase.
October–November: I think this is the most worth-looking-forward-to phase.
If macro liquidity keeps improving and regulation continues to advance, funds may rotate from BTC into mainstream assets like ETH, SOL, HYPE, and XRP.
And then comes:
Mainstream coins → mid caps → high-beta altcoins → memes
This is the kind of “altcoin season” I truly look forward to.
December: I would start to play defense.
If year-end really sees crazy FOMO, BTC making new highs one after another, altcoins doubling everywhere, and the market starting to feel like “just buy with your eyes closed and you’ll make money,” I would actually reduce my position.
Because what’s truly dangerous is often not that no one believes in a bull market.
But rather:
It’s when everyone believes in a bull market.
So my script for the end of the year is not:
BTC keeps rising all the way into year-end.
And it’s more like:
BTC breaks out → retests and confirms → makes a new high → ETH takes the lead → alts broaden out → the market goes wild → divergence begins at year-end.
If I had to give a subjective judgment right now:
I think the rest of this year is still worth maintaining a bullish bias.
But positioning should not be based on the logic that “bull markets never go down.”
