Many people are currently stuck in indecision—will the ongoing, recurring disruptions in U.S. Treasury bonds evolve into a broad financial crisis?
But to be honest, I’m not afraid of a crisis at all.
Because after doing investments for so long, I’ve always adhered to one principle:
I’ve never been a witness to history—I only become a beneficiary of it.
Panic has no value. Crises are always the biggest opportunity for wealth to be reshuffled.
The reason I’m so confident is that in my lifetime, I’ve had two real opportunities to achieve a leap in social class and complete the accumulation of core wealth, and both opportunities came when the market was at its most extreme panic.
The first time was the 2020 US stock market’s epic meltdown and circuit breakers. Back then, the whole internet was bearish; many major V-people said bluntly that shorting or bottom-picking US stocks was basically handing over money—just being stupid. Everyone was avoiding risk.
But the more emotions hit absolute despair, the more certain the opportunities are. I went in contrarily to buy the bottom back then, and I steadily captured the whole round of that super-repair rally.
*The second time was the market sentiment nadir in 924 of 2024: a moment when everyone was pessimistic, no one dared to move. It was also the bottoming opportunity of this wave, and it’s what ultimately let me complete my capital accumulation.
So I’m very clear about this:
The real big trend that changes your life has never been a gentle bull market grinding upward—but a golden pit created by a crisis smashing things down.
Back to the current chart: my position is very light. The last cycle’s segment profits in sci-tech innovation and nonferrous metals have basically all been banked, and I have a lot of cash on hand.
Honestly, I’m most eager for a deep market pullback.
The more彻底 it falls, the cleaner the risk gets released. Then the later buying points are safer, with a higher cost-effectiveness.
But what I’m truly worried about now isn’t a big sell-off/crisis. It’s continued high-level liquidity dumping—forcing the market to stay supported.
This is the most torturous kind of price action, and it’s also the biggest problem at this stage.
The market’s position is already not low. If the external environment keeps loosening liquidity and forcibly props up the index, the market will churn in a high range—won’t fall. Then you get stuck in an extreme dilemma.
Chase it up—risk stacking is huge when you pass the baton at high levels. You’re always facing a deep pullback, and one slip can mean giving back profits and getting trapped on board.
If we don’t chase, the market keeps rallying in a coordinated way—what you’re missing is simply the naked risk of being left behind, and it’s mentally excruciating.
This kind of high-level liquidity dumping that only shakes but doesn’t fall deeply is far harder to trade than a violent crash.
A violent sell-off is a certainty opportunity; a high-range churn is endless internal struggle.
So my stance is extremely firm:
Even if the market keeps moving higher, even if I miss out in the short term, I absolutely won’t go in with a heavy position.
Actually, my trading approach right now is very simple: try everything with small positions throughout; no heavy positioning, no gambling.
Then the only thing to do is to wait patiently for a round of sufficiently deep sell-off.
I’m not afraid of a big drop—I’m afraid it won’t drop.
I’m not afraid of a crisis; I’m afraid the crisis won’t come. $ETH
