In the past three weeks, speculative buy orders have flooded into the gold futures market, with a scale so large that it has drawn attention from market participants. From July 28 to August 18, managed funds, other categories, and non-reportable categories together recorded a net purchase of $22.2 billion in gold futures—the highest nominal amount in more than a decade. This round of buying consists of two parts: long position increases contributed $13.6 billion, while short covering contributed $8.6 billion. As of the statistics cutoff date, the gold net long position has already been at the 93rd percentile within the two-year lookback range. There is a "significant upside risk" to recent gains in gold. A friendly reminder: the risk of short-term position overheating is elevated, and the Jackson Hole meeting is the biggest near-term variable.

As the gold price continues to strengthen, the odds in the market are also moving rapidly. According to predicted market data, the market-implied probability of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce within the year has jumped from 40% a week ago to currently more than 60%.

The provided near-term technical reference levels are as follows: Resistance levels: 4670, 4770, 4890 Support levels: 4520, 4380, 4305 $XAU