SNDK: Today’s four-hour K-line has fully exposed the bulls’ bottom card. It surged to 1564, only to be hammered back to 1498; the long upper wick hangs over the head. Now 1510 is still lying below the 20 and 50 moving averages. For the futures positions, the seven-hour period saw no reduction—on the contrary, positions increased by 8.2%. In other words, as prices are falling, positions are being added, and most of what gets added is basically long exposure.
In the spot market, it’s even more direct: the net inflow across five buy windows is zero—nothing has gone in at all. This rebound from 1455 is propped up entirely by the futures market “lifting the sedan”—the portion that has risen doesn’t have real spot backing.
The bulls are struggling too. The funding rate is only 0.011%, yet among eight windows only four are positive. Even adding positions, they’re not willing to pay even a premium. Meanwhile, large-account positions are adding, but their position size is actually shrinking. The entrants are small orders probing the market—not the main players going in with heavy long positions.
My stance: the rejection at 1564 has already been completed. This rebound is likely already topped. Go short directly around 1510. The first target is 1488, the prior low; if that breaks, look at 1455. When will I admit I’m wrong? If price regains and holds above 1567, or if—suddenly—spot large orders flip to net inflows. If “real money” comes in, I won’t stubbornly hold against it.
#sndk $SNDK
In the spot market, it’s even more direct: the net inflow across five buy windows is zero—nothing has gone in at all. This rebound from 1455 is propped up entirely by the futures market “lifting the sedan”—the portion that has risen doesn’t have real spot backing.
The bulls are struggling too. The funding rate is only 0.011%, yet among eight windows only four are positive. Even adding positions, they’re not willing to pay even a premium. Meanwhile, large-account positions are adding, but their position size is actually shrinking. The entrants are small orders probing the market—not the main players going in with heavy long positions.
My stance: the rejection at 1564 has already been completed. This rebound is likely already topped. Go short directly around 1510. The first target is 1488, the prior low; if that breaks, look at 1455. When will I admit I’m wrong? If price regains and holds above 1567, or if—suddenly—spot large orders flip to net inflows. If “real money” comes in, I won’t stubbornly hold against it.
#sndk $SNDK
