$SNDK Sandisk’s price action today—my judgment is: 1416 has support and absorption, but the overhead supply hasn’t been fully cleared yet; it’s still in a turnover/rotation phase.
Ahead of the open and right after the open, the market actually gave the bulls a very good chance to rebound:
Open 1533 → High 1565
But then it was smashed all the way back to 1486, and during the session it returned to around 1500.
This indicates two things happening at the same time:
① Around 1416, there are indeed buyers taking in shares.
The pullback from 1416 to 1490+ yesterday wasn’t fake—there’s real buy demand underneath.
② Above 1500–1565, there are also people selling.
Especially today, while the entire chip sector is relatively strong, SNDK couldn’t hold 1530, which suggests the distribution of high-level shares hasn’t finished completely.
So I won’t define it as “the smart money has already washed out and is ready to rally.” The more accurate status is:
New capital is taking positions at lower levels + older holders continue to reduce their positions at higher levels.
Next, focus on a few key prices:
🔴 1600: the trend truly turns strong
🔴 1565: the main new pressure level today
🟠 1530–1535: the short-term strength/weakness line
🟡 1485–1500: the current trading center of mass
🟢 1450: the first line of defense
🟢 1416: the core bottom test level
🟢 1310–1350: the main cost zone after a breakdown below 1416
What I want to see most isn’t a sudden +10% surge in one candle, but rather:
A retest around 1416 again → volume shrinks → it can’t drop → then it reclaims 1500.
If this kind of second test holds without breaking, it’s healthier than a straight breakout rally, because it shows the sell pressure is truly running out.
On the other hand, if a volume-backed breakdown below 1400 happens on the second test of 1416, then yesterday was just the first batch of bargain-hunting capital entering—the real bottom might still need to be looked at around 1310–1350.
My current scenario weights:
1416 becomes the phase bottom: ~55%
If it then sells off to 1310–1350: ~30%
A direct breakout above 1600 kicks off a new round of upside: ~15%
In one sentence:
SNDK isn’t in a main rally yet, and it’s not a breakdown either—it’s a rotation/turnover of shares. There are buyers at 1416 and sellers at 1565; whichever side breaks through that range first will determine the next directional move.
Also, don’t forget that next comes the NVDA earnings report—an important variable that could directly affect the risk of the entire AI/storage sector.
Ahead of the open and right after the open, the market actually gave the bulls a very good chance to rebound:
Open 1533 → High 1565
But then it was smashed all the way back to 1486, and during the session it returned to around 1500.
This indicates two things happening at the same time:
① Around 1416, there are indeed buyers taking in shares.
The pullback from 1416 to 1490+ yesterday wasn’t fake—there’s real buy demand underneath.
② Above 1500–1565, there are also people selling.
Especially today, while the entire chip sector is relatively strong, SNDK couldn’t hold 1530, which suggests the distribution of high-level shares hasn’t finished completely.
So I won’t define it as “the smart money has already washed out and is ready to rally.” The more accurate status is:
New capital is taking positions at lower levels + older holders continue to reduce their positions at higher levels.
Next, focus on a few key prices:
🔴 1600: the trend truly turns strong
🔴 1565: the main new pressure level today
🟠 1530–1535: the short-term strength/weakness line
🟡 1485–1500: the current trading center of mass
🟢 1450: the first line of defense
🟢 1416: the core bottom test level
🟢 1310–1350: the main cost zone after a breakdown below 1416
What I want to see most isn’t a sudden +10% surge in one candle, but rather:
A retest around 1416 again → volume shrinks → it can’t drop → then it reclaims 1500.
If this kind of second test holds without breaking, it’s healthier than a straight breakout rally, because it shows the sell pressure is truly running out.
On the other hand, if a volume-backed breakdown below 1400 happens on the second test of 1416, then yesterday was just the first batch of bargain-hunting capital entering—the real bottom might still need to be looked at around 1310–1350.
My current scenario weights:
1416 becomes the phase bottom: ~55%
If it then sells off to 1310–1350: ~30%
A direct breakout above 1600 kicks off a new round of upside: ~15%
In one sentence:
SNDK isn’t in a main rally yet, and it’s not a breakdown either—it’s a rotation/turnover of shares. There are buyers at 1416 and sellers at 1565; whichever side breaks through that range first will determine the next directional move.
Also, don’t forget that next comes the NVDA earnings report—an important variable that could directly affect the risk of the entire AI/storage sector.