$BTC —does this move really count as a “bull comeback”?
Over the past few days, $BTC has been pulled from just over 60,000 all the way to around 80,000. Today’s high has already touched above 81,000. From the chart structure, most of the losses since June have essentially been recovered. The range between 62,000 and 66,000, which had been grinding for more than a month, was also broken out of directly on increased volume.
This move isn’t just a pretty K-line.
After the U.S. long-term Treasury repo expanded, U.S. bond yields fell and the U.S. dollar weakened, and $BTC began to accelerate noticeably. Last week, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs combined saw net inflows of about $2.6 billion. Add that to the roughly $4 billion worth of short positions that were squeezed out earlier, and these forces together pushed the market higher.
So now, saying “bull comeback” has more confidence than a few days ago. But 80,000–82,000 is also exactly the prior high-level zone. After today’s push up, it quickly returned to around 78,000. For the short term, I’m more inclined to expect consolidation here—and even a pullback—before going higher. A straight, nonstop rally upward isn’t as easy.
As long as it doesn’t get dumped back down toward the 72,000 area, which was the breakout platform this time, I still lean bullish on the overall structure. If it can really absorb the 82,000 area and hold there, then this cycle’s nature would be more like a return to an uptrend, rather than just a single large-scale rebound.
#BTC
Over the past few days, $BTC has been pulled from just over 60,000 all the way to around 80,000. Today’s high has already touched above 81,000. From the chart structure, most of the losses since June have essentially been recovered. The range between 62,000 and 66,000, which had been grinding for more than a month, was also broken out of directly on increased volume.
This move isn’t just a pretty K-line.
After the U.S. long-term Treasury repo expanded, U.S. bond yields fell and the U.S. dollar weakened, and $BTC began to accelerate noticeably. Last week, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs combined saw net inflows of about $2.6 billion. Add that to the roughly $4 billion worth of short positions that were squeezed out earlier, and these forces together pushed the market higher.
So now, saying “bull comeback” has more confidence than a few days ago. But 80,000–82,000 is also exactly the prior high-level zone. After today’s push up, it quickly returned to around 78,000. For the short term, I’m more inclined to expect consolidation here—and even a pullback—before going higher. A straight, nonstop rally upward isn’t as easy.
As long as it doesn’t get dumped back down toward the 72,000 area, which was the breakout platform this time, I still lean bullish on the overall structure. If it can really absorb the 82,000 area and hold there, then this cycle’s nature would be more like a return to an uptrend, rather than just a single large-scale rebound.
#BTC
